I'm not too concerned about his lack of a run as fitness is rarely an issue for runners from this stable.
For the winner of this Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury (2.40), the best place to start is with Denman, who must have a good chance of winning off top weight, just as he did two years ago.
Obviously, he has a tougher task this time round off a handicap mark of 174, having raced off a mark of 161 when recording an 11-length win in 2007, while there is a school of thought that he is not the same horse who destroyed Kauto Star in the 2008 Gold Cup, which is based on some lacklustre performances last season. However, he's with the right trainer to bounce back to his best and no-one should be surprised if he wins again.
That said, his current best price of 4/1 (Paddy Power) is not giving much away and I'd rather search for some value further down the betting list. Many punters will stop at his stablemate What A Friend (7/1 Ladbrokes), who has been trained for this race and, thanks to Denman, has a nice light weight. Nicholls believes he could be a Gold Cup contender in which case he must go close here.
He does have a high head carriage, though, and I just wonder whether he'll dig deep and battle when push comes to shove. I can't have him at 7/1, nor the Queen's Barbers Shop at 6/1 (bet365) for that matter. Like What A Friend, he has a nice racing weight, but his stamina is a big concern with the ground likely to be testing. Stamina won't be an issue for Killyglen (8/1 Blue Square), who will strip fitter for his reappearance run over an inadequate 2m4f at Carlisle earlier this month. He should give a good account, although his price has gone now.
Apart from him and Denman, the other horses I like the look of are 2006 Hennessy winner and Grand National fourth State Of Play (25/1 William Hill), who goes well fresh and will be plugging on late, and Nenuphar Collonges (25/1 Coral), whose trainer Alan King is expecting a big run. They could both make the frame, but the best of the longshots looks to be AN ACCORDION at a tasty 33/1 with Stan James.
Trained by David Pipe, who won last year's renewal with 25/1 shot Madison Du Berlais, he looked a chaser of some potential when winning handicap chases at Doncaster and Cheltenham in 2008. He pulled up on his only start last season - hence his price - but has had a wind operation since and, if that's done the trick, he's capable of a bold show off his light weight. I'm not too concerned about his lack of a run as fitness is rarely an issue for runners from this stable, which continued its good form with a double at Uttoxeter on Thursday.
Recommended Bets:
An Accordion 1pt each-way @ 33/1 Stan James
Denman 1pt @ best morning-line price