The drying ground at Doncaster is very much in ALDERBURN'S favour and he looks a good bet at 7/2 with bet365 to win Saturday's Grimthorpe Chase over 3m2f (3.20).

Henry Daly's ten-year-old was third, beaten seven lengths and a neck, to Cloudy Lane and Ungaro (11/2 Paddy Power) in last year's renewal and can race here off a 4lb lower mark. Cloudy Lane was expected to defend his title but he runs in the 3.35 at Kelso instead (has Money Trix to beat), while Ungaro re-opposes on 2lb better terms than last year. However, he can't be seriously fancied after his terrible display in the Racing Post Chase last weekend (tailed off when pulled up before three out) and I'll be amazed if he finishes in front of Alderburn this time.

Another compelling reason to back Alderburn is the fact that he will be fresher than most of rivals after just two runs this season, the latest when running third to Niche Market at Ascot in December. That was on good to soft ground, which he would have found too testing, but he still holds Out The Black (13/2 bet365) and Gungadu (12/1 bet365), fourth and eighth respectively, on that running and his stable has really hit a purple patch of late, so everything is in place for a big run.

The one horse I'd be afraid of (if he runs) is last season's Grand National winner Comply Or Die (8/1 Paddy Power), who is being refitted with the blinkers that had a such a dramatic effect last season, culminating in his win at Aintree. However, the drying ground is certainly not in his favour and connections may yet decide not to risk him, so wait until he's confirmed a definite runner before backing Alderburn or else you might get clobbered with a rule 4 deduction.

I don't fancy the rest: Noir Et Vert is too slow; Gidam Gidam was fourth last year off a similar mark; Idle Talk has become disappointing; Apollo Creed will appreciate the ground but is still in the handicapper's grip after rattling off a hat-trick of wins last summer.

Recommended Bet:

Alderburn 2pts @ 7/2 bet365