Irish have the Derby in the bag but can you name the Classic winner?

The Trials are over and we are so sure that an Irish colt will win next month’s Investec Derby that StanJames are betting 7/1 that a British-trained horse will win the Epsom Derby next month. But who has impressed you most after the recent crop of Derby Trials and who will you be backing in the 2009 Epsom Derby?

Let's start with the stanjames.com 2000 Guineas and the winner Sea The Stars who is a half-brother to a Derby winner Galileo but whose sire Cape Cross is not a great influence for stamina. He was so impressive on the Rowley Mile that I am not convinced he will get the trip at Epsom especially if there is cut in the ground although I am of the opinion he will get at least 10 furlongs and could become a great horse this summer.

I was not particularly impressed with Rip Van Winkle in the paddock at Newmarket ahead of the Guineas and of the vanquished at HQ much favour the chances of Gan Amhras trained by last year's winning handler Jim Bolger. A son of Galileo he was an impressive 3l winner from Masterofthehorse (making his debut) when breaking his maiden at Naas last July and he ran on extremely well in the Guineas to finish third. He looks sure to appreciate the step up in trip and is a major player.

The market leader is the unbeaten Aidan O’Brien-trained Fame And Glory who won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial so impressively at Leopardstown on Sunday. A 10f Group 1 winner as a juvenile (albeit the weakest in the European Pattern calendar) we can be sure that Fame And Glory will stay every inch of the mile-and-a-half of the Derby but I just have it in my mind that he lacks the class of an Authorized or a New Approach the two most recent winners of the Great Old race.

The Dante Stakes is generally regarded as the premier Derby Trial and I was most taken with the run of Black Bear Island who came with a wet sail to beat stablemate Freemantle going away and this brother to 2002 Derby winner High Chapparral looks a cracking each way bet in my opinion.

I am still kicking myself for not supporting the colt at York believing: (i) the ground was not soft enough and (ii) the booking of stable jockey Johnny Murtagh for his stablemate Freemantle a negative. His run on the Knavesmire suggested good ground would not prove a negative although he like Fame And Glory would be suited by ground with plenty of give.

Masterofthehorse was not given the most enterprising ride of the year by Johnny Murtagh in the Chester Vase at the Roodeye earlier in the month and he is surely better than his 2l defeat by Golden Sword would suggest. It ought to be remembered that he was only beaten half a length by Sea The Stars in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last September and he remains a colt of considerable potential and at 20/1 I think he is currently overpriced.

Epsom Derby 2009 Odds
Outright Ante Post, (place terms: 1/4 the first 3)

9-4       Fame And Glory
10-3     Sea The Stars
13-2     Black Bear Island
7          Gan Amhras
8          Rip Van Winkle
12        Sans Frontieres
16        Crowded House
20        Masterofthehorse
20        Freemantle
20        Harbinger
25        Byzantine
25        Age Of Aquarius
25        Kite Wood
33        Redwood  (T B S)
33        Rockhampton
33        Nehaam
33        Golden Sword
33        Stately Home
33        Fergus Mciver
33        Four Winds
33        Free Agent
33        Westphalia
33        Arazan
33        Alwaary
33        Vitruvian Man
40        Sirgarfieldsobers
40        La De Two
40        Native Ruler
40        Palavicini
50/1     Bar.