It's been eight year's since Aidan O'Brien last won the Derby with High Chaparral but he looks to have an excellent chance this year with Jan Vermeer, who is as short as 9/4 after a sustained gamble.
As the only Group 1 winner - last season's Criterium International at Longchamp - he arguably brings the best form into the race and he did everything right in the Gallinule Stakes on his reappearance, travelling and quickening the best to win with his head in his chest, despite giving weight away to race-fit rivals and being in need of the run. The longer trip shouldn't be a problem - he wasn't stopping at the finish over 1m2f last time - and he's the choice of stable jockey Johnny Murtagh, who normally gets it right.
With luck in running, he must go close but he's a very short price (11/4 best with Stan James) and I'm inclined to find one against him at an each-way price.
At the start of the week, I liked the look of Azmeel (12/1 Ladbrokes) and John Gosden's Dee Stakes winner will be hard to keep out of the frame - the trainer's record with horses priced under 25/1 in the Derby is 441323. However, I'm now coming round to AL ZIR (20/1 Victor Chandler), who is surely better than what he showed in the 2000 Guineas when nothing went right for him. Always held in high regard by Godolphin, he has reportedly been working well since and this step up to a mile and a half should be right up his street. Kieren Fallon, a rare booking for the stable, takes the ride and around Epsom that has to be worth a length or two alone.
My Derby 1-2-3 is Al Zir to beat Jan Vermeer and Azmeel.
There are plenty more punting opportunities on the seven-race card, starting off with the Vincent O'Brien Handicap (1.40), which has gone to a Sir Michael Stoute runner for three of the last years. And the Newmarket trainer must have a great chance of making it four from seven with VERDANT, who deserves a chance to atone for his disappointing defeat at Newbury last time when a slow early pace and traffic problems conspired against him. Before that, he'd looked a horse to follow when winning on his reappearance at Sandown, following a maiden win on only his second start at Lingfield last October, and with just four runs under his belt, there is almost certainly better to come. I very much doubt he's as good as his stablemate Conduit, who won this in 2008 en route to greater things, but he still looks a cut above his rivals and it's hard to see the current 3/1 with Skybet being bettered on the day.
The Dash (3.15) is the richest handicap over the minimum trip in the country and attracts it's fair share of course specialists. Captain Dunne is back for another crack after being denied by a short head last year, while the third Strike The Band will be hard to keep out of the frame again off a 3lb lower mark. It's the sort of race you could run 10 times and get a different result every time, but I'm hopeful FATHOM FIVE can do the business at 9/1 (bet365). He too has shown a liking for this idiosyncratic track having won two of his three starts here and was sixth in this race last year off a 3lb higher mark on the other occasion. Looking back at the results of the last 10 years, a high draw has been advantageous, especially on fast ground, so stall 18 of 19 is just the ticket.
Later on in the 1m4f handicap (4.45), I'm very interested to see what price SIBERIAN TIGER opens up at as he's potentially well-treated off a mark of 95 and his trainer Michael Wigham is not adverse to having a tilt at the ring. It's a while since he won on the flat but he's been in good form over hurdles, chasing home Ashkazar in a Listed hurdle on his latest start and, after missing several engagements of late, I suspect he's been saved for this valuable prize. At the time of writing, only Stan James are up with prices and I'd be hopeful of beating their quote of 12/1 in the morning.
Recommended Bets:
The Derby 1pt each-way @ 20/1 Victor Chandler
1.40 Verdant 2pts win @ 3/1 Skybet
3.15 Fathom Five 1pt @ 9/1 bet365
4.45 Siberian Tiger 1pt each-way @ best morning-line price
