The Champion Hurdle betting is set for another shake up after Tuesday's December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown (2.00).
The defection of Hurricane Fly may have robbed the race of some of its gloss, but the presence of Solwhit, who beat Hurricane Fly into third at Punchestown, and Sublimity, who won this race last year and was a place ahead of Solwhit in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, makes for a fascinating race and a fitting finale to what has been a cracking meeting.
Solwhit's third-placed effort in the Fighting Fifth was at the time a shade disappointing as he had previously looked very impressive at Punchestown and many people were talking up his Champion Hurdle chances before the Newcastle race. With hindsight, though, it was a decent effort as the slow early pace would have been against him and in the end he was beaten just under six lengths by the winner Go Native, who has since boosted the form by winning the Christmas Hurdle. He deserves another chance and would be a confident selection on soft or heavy ground, as he needs those conditions to be fully effective over this 2m trip.
However, with the ground currently riding good to soft and drying out all the time, the weather gods have conspired him and he is worth taking on at around the even money mark. Step forward SUBLIMITY, who won't mind the ground one bit and can be backed at a tasty 5/1 with Stan James (only 3/1 with Coral). The 2007 Champion Hurdle disappointed on his next couple of outings after winning this race 12 months ago, but an operation on his palate earlier this year has seemingly worked the oracle and his effort in chasing home Go Native last time shows he hasn't lost any of his ability.
Realistically, with the 2m division looking strong this season, he's unlikely to regain his Champion Hurdle crown in March, but with ground conditions in his favour and on a course he loves, he must have a cracking chance to land this Grade 1 prize for the second successive year. Don't get me wrong, Solwhit will be a formidable opponent and is a worthy favourite, but Sublimity is a 3/1 shot in my opinion and therefore rates a decent bet at 9/2.
This is no two-horse race of course and Muirhead (5/1 Coral) rates a big danger. Noel Meade's six-year-old won his first three races, including the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle, but his seven subsequent outings have all ended in defeat. Still, he has run well in every one of them, notably last time out at Punchestown when splitting Solwhit and Hurricane Fly. Ideally, he wants and end-to-end gallop, which he's not certain to get here.
Of the rest, Won In The Dark (14/1 Paddy Power) was just half a length behind Sublimity in this race 12 months ago and ran a fine fourth in the Fighting Fifth on his reappearance. He should run well but my money's on Sublimity to land the double.
Recommended Bet:
Sublimity 2pts @ 5/1 Stan James
