Coral's Horse Racing Odds Compiler Tim Smith talks to Bettingpro about the Grade 1 races at Cheltenham 2010
Coral as one of Britain's leading racing bookies has a number of Cheltenham specials running right now
Tuesday
If Dunguib is beaten in Tuesday’s opener some punters will be heading for the exits before the stragglers have parked their cars. Philip Fenton’s 7yo travels like an exceptional horse and his hurdling technique looks more than adequate to me, but it’s all in the price now and there are better betting races later. The Arkle looks as tricky as ever, with few form lines with which to compare the English and Irish challengers, so at this stage it is the Champion Hurdle that appeals most as a betting race on Day 1.
Twelve months ago Punjabi got the better of a prolonged tussle with Celestial Halo and Binocular, with Crack Away Jack staying on in fourth. None of these horses has looked anything like a Champion Hurdler this season, and I would be surprised if the 2010 winner comes from that sub-standard renewal. In contrast Zaynar’s Triumph form has been franked all over the place but, whilst it is far too early to write the gelding off, I can’t remember many Cheltenham Graded winners who were turned over at Kelso on their prep run.
Irish raiders Solwhit and Go Native are both solid at the head of the market but the fancy prices are long gone and neither looks bomb-proof. Medermit has held his form better than most Alan King horses this season and he only has to repeat his unlucky second to Go Native in last year’s Supreme to have a huge chance in the Champion. The gutsy grey rarely runs a bad race and he looks the each way bet in an open race.
Wednesday
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature of Wednesday’s card, and Master Minded has been popular ever since he hosed up on his return at Newbury. That run proved he has recovered from his rib injury but I don’t think it proved much else. Master Minded wouldn’t have been the first horse to make Mahogany Blaze look slow, and that run wasn’t conclusive proof that he remains the brilliant horse he once was. Kalahari King might be the one to beat him but at this stage my idea of the best bet on Wednesday runs in the opening race on the card, the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle.
It rarely pays to get carried away with a Northern trained novice dishing out hefty beatings to inferior rivals on bad ground, but I am going to make an exception for Peddlers Cross. Donald McCain’s expensive Irish import tanks through his races and hurdles as fluently as any novice I have seen this season. He has yet to face horses of the class he will meet at the festival but everything about him suggests that the better the competition, the better he’ll look.
Thursday
Only two Grade Ones to look at on Thursday, and with Ryanair Chase running plans still unclear it is best to focus on the World Hurdle for now. Big Buck's is only hurdling because he doesn’t like jumping fences, but that has proved a blessing in disguise as he has quickly set about dominating a weak staying division. That said, a quick trawl through the horses he has beaten hardly sets the pulse racing and I suspect we wouldn’t need a superstar to get him turned over.
It is somewhat ironic that the most credible challenger to Big Buck’s’ World Hurdle crown is a horse whose career has followed a similarly errant path. The parallels between Tidal Bay and Big Buck's are there for all to see; both horses are classy but flawed chasers who have had their love for the game rekindled by swerving the big fences. During the same festival that Big Buck’s plodded into seventh off 148 in the Jewson, Tidal Bay was busy winning the Arkle by thirteen lengths. The World Hurdle is an altogether different test and plenty of water has passed under the bridge since March 2008, but Tidal Bay undoubtedly possesses Big Buck’s’ class and he looks a great bet against the favourite at current odds.
Friday
The Gold Cup takes centre stage on Friday and, unlike some of the short ones going to post during the week, Kauto Star looks almost impossible to oppose. As a young chaser he was susceptible to the odd jumping error but with age has come wisdom and I don’t recall him touching a twig since Sam Thomas slipped out the side door at Haydock fifteen months ago. His devastating display at Kempton on Boxing Day was as impressive as any I have seen and he looks like the banker of the festival. The only difficult bit is working out who will chase him home.
I can’t have Denman at likely odds because he was beaten at Newbury before his jumping fell to pieces and, whilst he was clearly in dire need of the run that day, even his biggest fan would struggle to call that an ideal Gold Cup prep. Imperial Commander is probably best at half a mile shorter and Tricky Trickster needs half a mile further, so using my powers of deduction I’d favour Cooldine in the straight forecast. He beat some very slow horses in last year’s RSA Chase and I don’t expect him to be hot on the favourite’s trail up the Cheltenham hill, but this is his trip and track and he could be the one to grab second whilst Kauto is being hosed down