The definitive betting guide to the Breeders' Cup Turf.
1m4f, Group 1, turf, due off at 8.45pm UK time.
Last year's winner - Dangerous Midge.
Key Pointers:
Despite the un-European nature of the Breeders' Cup tracks, this has been a great race for the 'away' team with 16 wins in the 27 renewals, including five of the last seven here. Two of them, however, did put the finishing touches to their preparattions with runs in America. Of the European trainers, Sir Michael Stoute has the best record with three wins and he relies on Sea Moon this time.
His Conduit obliged as 10/11 favourite two years ago but this has not been a great race for market leaders generally with the likes of Behkabad, Hurricane Run, Montjeu, Pistolet Bleu and Indian Skimmer all getting turned over. This year, the burden of favouritism falls on the ex-French Sarafina, who is now trained in the States.
As with a number of Breeders' Cup races, four-year-olds have fared best. Thirteen from that age group have prevailed and no horse older than five has managed to win. There have been plenty of three-year-old winners too but it's worth noting that this age group only get a 3lb age allowance from their elders in the States at this time of the year.
Home Team:
Quality American turf performers are few and far between but they look to have a legitimate contender in Sarafina (11/4 best with Blue Square), although she's done all her racing on this side of the pond. Ultra-consistent, having finished in the first three on 19 of her 22 starts, her sole aim this season was another crack at the Arc, in which she was a disappointing favourite. However, the big field may have been against her and her electrifying turn of foot will make her hard to beat in a race where acceleration is everything. The rest simpy don't look good enough.
European Team:
This is strong as usual with Great Voltigeur winner Sea Moon the nearest rival to Sarafina in the betting. His subsequent third in the St Leger was slightly disappointing but he's with the right trainer and connections will have been delighted to see the recent rain. The admirably consistent Midday is another who will appreciate some cut but the sharp turns at Churchill Downs have found her out before and she faces a stiff task against the boys - has been beaten on all three tries in Grade 1 company against male horses.
Bigger danger, therefore, look to be the two Aidan O'Brien-trained horses Await The Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey. The former looked out of the top drawer when winning the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and was a sick horse when flopping in the Juddmonte. If he's back to anything near his best after an 80-day layoff, he must go close, although the recent rain favours his stablemate more as it brings his stamina into play.
Verdict:
Sarafina looks solid but her come-from-behind style means she's always likely to meet traffic problems, as in last year's Arc, and a a chance is taken on ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, who finished in front of her in this year's Arc when coming home in fifth. He will need a career-best effort to win for sure but will be running on medication here and that could work the oracle as he's had his fair share of physical problems. A winner at Chester earlier this season, he will be suited by the sharp, turning track and the ground isn't a concern either as he's won on heavy. So, all things considered, the 6/1 on offer with Paddy Power looks worth taking, although I'll be saving half my stake money for the American Tote, which could provide even greater value.
