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Breeders' Cup Saturday Tips (Races 4-6)

With my pockets laden with dollars after Gayego's win in the sprint, the temptation will be to get stuck into the next race on the card, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (8.49) - but this is not a race to get too heavily involved in. The Americans have a strong challenger in Lookin At Lucky, who is almost certain to go of favourite after winning his prep race, the Grade 1 Norfolk over course and distance. If you fancy him to win, then my advice is to take the current 3/1 on offer with Blue Square as the local horses will invariably be shorter on the American Tote.

I reckon he's worth taking on, though. While he has looked impressive in his wins to date, the winning times were nothing to get excited about and I’m not sure the form amounts to much either. An even bigger negative is his draw in post 13. It's not an insurmountable task but not many horses win from that wide out at Santa Anita, even over this distance of 1m1/2f. For that reason, I'll quite happily sit this one out, although it will be interesting to see what prices the Aidan O'Brien-trained pair of ALFRED NOBEL and BEETHOVEN are on the US Tote. Both bring rock-solid two-year-old form to the table and have the necessary turn of foot to win on this surface. I can get 9/1 (bet365) and 12/1 (Totesport) respectively over here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them trading at much bigger prices on the night, in which case I will have to get involved.

I was going to put up Goldikova as my banker of the meeting in the Mile (9.28) - that honour now goes to Gayego - but I changed my mind after she was dealt post 11, which is far from ideal. She's by far the best horse in the race and who can forget her electrifying performance when winning this race last year as 9/4 favourite. However, this is arguably a stronger renewal and she did have a hard race in France last time (just 35 days ago). Therefore I just have to take her on at the current odds - 6/4 best with Ladbrokes and Coral.

Godolphin run Delegator and Gladiatorus but I've done my money backing both this season and they look beatable again. The tight turns might find Delegator out, while the habitual front-runner Gladiatorus will try and make all; never an easy thing to do on this surface. You have to respect anything Sir Michael Stoute sends over for this meeting so his Zacinto cannot be overlooked. However, I'm going to be a ‘traitor’ and back one of the home team.

Considering there are not many top-class races over a mile in the States, their horses have done particularly well in this race with seven wins in the past decade. Their best chance this time looks to lie with JUSTENUFFHUMOUR, who I suspect would be considerably shorter in the betting had he not finished a well beaten sixth last time out. There was an excuse for that run, though, as he hated the soft ground and is better judged on his previous six starts, which were all winning ones.

OK, he's not exactly well-drawn either in post 10, but he's a silly 20/1 with Boylesports and at that price the Americans could well be having the last laugh (excuse the pun).

MASTERCRAFTSMAN is much better drawn in the Dirt Mile (1m). In fact, he has what the Americans call the 'box seat' in post one and considering this race lacks strength in depth he must take all the beating. Of course, that hasn't escaped the attention of British bookmakers with the majority quoting Aidan O'Brien's' charge around the 7/4 mark, although Ladbrokes dangle a carrot of 5/2. They are clearly out to 'get' him, which makes me slightly wary of getting stuck in as they are normally pretty dialed in when it comes to the Ballydoyle horses.

Of course, that price could well be a red herring and might even turn out to be a gift, especially as his nearest rivals in the betting, Bullsbay (11/2 Blue Square) and Midshipman (6/1 Paddy Power), are more dirt race performers. Still, unless Mastercraftsman is a silly price on the US PMU, and by that I mean over 3/1, I will take a watching brief and wait for the bigger fish to come along in the concluding Turf and Classic.

Selections:

Alfred Nobel / Beethoven 1pt each @ US PMU odds
Justenuffhumour 1pt each way @ 20/1 Boylesports
Mastercraftsman 2pts @ US PMU odds (if 3/1 or bigger)


 


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