The definitive betting guide to the Breeders' Cup Mile.
1m, Grade 1, turf, due off at 10.07pm UK time.
Last year's winner - Goldikova
Key Pointers:
This has been a great race for the Europeans with twelve winners, the last three coming courtesy of Goldikova, who is bidding for an unprecedented four-timer. She has gone off favourite on each occasion but previously this has not been a good race for market leaders and three winners in the past decade were priced at 16/1 or bigger.
The ability to see out the mile is paramount with every single winner in the past decade having scored over the trip, which would rule out Strong Suit, who was beaten at Chantilly this season on his only previous attempt at it.
The track does favour front runners and that has been borne out by the results with all winners being what's termed as 'stalkers' or 'deep closers'.
Home Team:
The Americans look up against it here with 12/1 shot Courageous Cat their best hope. He was just half a length behind Goldikova (never wins by far) in the 2009 renewal and has won five of his last 11 starts, but has always looked susceptible on long home-straights and having looked sure to win at Woodbine (2.2f home-straight) last time, he faded badly to finish second to the fast-finishing Turallure. The latter will again be doing his best work late and the recent rain is in his favour as it will bring his undoubted stamina into play. The three-year-old Mr Commons doesn't look good enough at this stage of his career.
European Team:
Goldikova would bring the house down if she won as the Americans love her too - that will be reflected in her price at the track of course and she could go off even shorter than the current 7/4 (Ladbrokes) on offer over here. Some have crabbed her form this season, which has seen more defeats than victories, but her latest defeat by Dream Ahead over an inadequate trip in the Prix de la Foret was no disgrace as the winner is top class. Her trainer Freddie Head is not duly concerned and reckons she's in better form than last year.
She will have to be, though, as last year's runner-up Gio Ponti warmed up for this with a stylish win in a Grade 1 at Keeneland and, having been ridden from well off the pace 12 months ago, is likely to be ridden more positively this time. Strong Suit is also likely to be right up there from the start and arrives here on the back of an impressive four and a half length defeat of Chachamaidee in the Challenge Stakes, which gives him the beating of Goldikova on some collateral form. Byword has to be seriously considered too as
his only loss in four starts was a length second to the useful Rajsaman, and his victim last time was Champion Stakes winner Cirrus Des Aigles.
Verdict:
I'm loathe to go against Goldikova as it would be great for racing if she were to bring the curtain down on her magnificent career with a fourth win in the Mile. At the start of the week, I couldn't see past her and she was value too at 5/2, but that price has gone now and the recent rain has tempered my enthusiasm further. I'm not saying she won't go on the surface but, with a strong pace throughout assured, stamina will be at a premium and I've a sneaky feeling that BYWORD will mow her down late. This trip was the bare minimum for Andre Fabre's runner in Europe but the race could be set up perfectly for him here and what's more he's a value price at 9/1 with Coral, and could be even bigger on the American Tote. One horse I can't have is Strong Suit and the fact he missed a vital piece of work on Friday makes him a place lay.
