The definitive betting guide to the Breeders' Cup Classic.
1m2f, Grade 1, dirt, due off at 11pm UK time.
Last year's winner - Blame.
Key Pointers:
Raven's Pass won this race three years ago when it was run on a synthetic surface but the return to dirt means the odds are heavily stacked against an 'away' win, with just one other European success in a dirt Classic; that coming courtesy of Arcangues in 1993. That doesn't bode well for the chances of So You Think and his trainer Aidan O'Brien's poor record in the race is even less inspiring - his last runner Rip Van Winkle ran a shocker two years ago and there have been several other notable failures.
20 of the last 22 winners of the race on dirt reached the first four or got within four lengths of the winner in a Grade 1 over 1m2f+, with the two exceptions wining a Grade 1 and Grade 2 over 1m1f. The favourite Uncle Mo falls down on that score, as does To Honour And Serve and Headache.
Fillies and mares rarely run in the race but, of the five that have tried, one, Zenyatta, won and two others ran second and third. This year, Havre De Grace is the only female runner.
Home Team:
Last year's top juvenile Uncle Mo (4/1 best with Stan James) is undoubtedly the fastest horse in the race, but will he stay? If he does, he's in with a serious shout and he certainly wasn't stopping when winning the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap (1m) by eight lengths last time. Havre De Grace has improved this year and beat the boys in a Grade 1 two starts back. Last time she tried 1m2f, she lost narrowly but that wasn't through lack of stamina.
To Honour And Serve showed plenty of pace when winning a strongly-run 1m1f Grade 2 last time and is clearly still improving. Flat Out recorded a Grade 1 win over this distance last time and has apparently been working well on the track. Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice is another to consider.
European Team:
So You Think may be our only challenger but he arrives here with by far the best form, having won three Group 1s and finished second in two more - might have been three had he been better drawn in the Arc (4th) - and there's no stamina doubts whatsoever. The big question is whether he will act on the dirt surface and that is the chance you are taking at the current best odds of 5/1 (Ladbrokes).
Verdict:
You either think Uncle Mo will stay and back him or take a view that he won't. I'm in the latter camp and it's no surprise he has drifted out with UK bookmakers to as big as 4/1, which would be huge if I'm wrong. I'm not convinced by So You Think either. It's not so much whether he will act on the surface (he's certainly built for it) but more the fact he's had a long, hard season and this race is very much an afterthought. The filly Have De Grace should be thereabouts, so include her in your forecasts, but for the winner I'm taking a chance on RULER ON ICE at a tasty 20/1 (Ladbrokes). We know he stays as the Belmont was over 1m4f and he was catching To Honour And Serve hand over fist when dropped to 1m1f last time. If we get a strong early pace (quite likely), he could easily come with a sustained late run to beat them all.
