Bettingpro analysis - Lay Kauto Star and Denman?

- 26 Nov 2009

Bettingpro looks back on the Betfair Chase and ahead to the Hennessy before coming up with the same betting approach to Paul Nicholls' star chasers.

I managed to watch The Betfair Chase at Haydock the day before unmolested and in the privacy of my own home, and what a race it was! Kauto Star's last-gasp defeat of the gallant Imperial Commander has to go down as one of the most exciting races I have ever seen.

I was as surprised as anyone to discover that Kauto Star had shaded it in the photo finish. At least racing, unlike football, long since saw the sense in using modern technology to assist in crucial decision-making...

Quite how good the first two were on the day is difficult to tell, though the time looks good and I would be inclined to "big up" the runner-up more than run down the winner.

That said, whichever way you look at it, Kauto Star does not look invincible in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, and yet his odds for a fourth successive win in the race are skimpy at 1.88 to back. I have laid a bit and may be looking to lay more nearer the time.

If you think that is a decent price about Kauto winning at Kempton on Boxing Day, then click here and head to Betfair for information on how to get a free bet on the race,

* * *

A tremendous race looks in store for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday, with past winners Denman and State of Play among 37 to have stood their ground at the five-day stage. Denman's presence not only adds considerable quality to the contest, it also makes it a more appealing race to tackle, as less than half the field is in the handicap proper.

At his very best Denman would be difficult to beat despite top weight of 11-12, but there has to be quite a bit of doubt as to whether he will be at his peak, following a stop-start campaign in 2008/9 in which he finished second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but failed to scale the heights he had the season before.

The Hennessy has been a happy hunting ground for up-and-coming chasers over the years, with first- and second-season novices outperforming more seasoned campaigners since the turn of the century, and lightly raced horses of that ilk faring better still (those having had six races or fewer over larger obstacles accounting for an impressive 63% of their rivals).

When Denman won the Hennessy in 2007, he was a second-season novice on the up and running off a mark of 161, as opposed to 174 now. The boot is firmly on the other foot now, in other words, and I suspect he will come undone.

I recommend laying him for a place if you can do so at around 2.0 (plenty has been matched at shorter already) to lose 3 pts and it looks worth taking a small win interest in What A Friend, his stable-companion, and Gone For Lunch (both 1 pt win).

What A Friend (9.4 to back) is quirky but talented, and has an excellent profile and just 10-4 to carry. Gone For Lunch (23.0 to back) is strictly not a second-season novice in that he had one unsuccessful run as a hunter in 2006/7, but he is only 3 lb higher than when second in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April and looks to have been undervalued by the market, possibly on account of his small but accomplished stable.

* * *

My filly King's Miracle made her return to action on Friday at Wolverhampton and finished fourth. In some respects we were pleased - she took the preliminaries quite well despite the staging of a boisterous Mascot Race and a fireworks display nearby just before she ran! - though the level of form she showed was a long way below what we had been hoping of her back in the spring. She has responded well to the experience and her next run should give us a clearer idea of what the future holds.

My other horse, One Way Or Another, runs in what looks quite a winnable £18,000 event at Wolverhampton this Friday. He was disappointing last time but has always worked exceptionally well on Polytrack, and we are hopeful that his public debut on the surface will be a successful one. I expect to be backing him, anyway.









You might also be interested in:
Tags

Get free bets




Get free tips by email
Be the first to get insider tips from our experts. Your email address is secure with Bettingpro