What are the best bets at Ascot on Saturday?
2:05 Jaguar XJ Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) 5f
This Group 3 sprint for juveniles looks wide open and that is reflected in the betting with some bookmakers going 5/1 'the field'. Not so Paddy Power, who make Caledonia Lady their clear 7/2 favourite and this speedy filly looks to have sound claims based on some fair efforts this season, including a close third in the Queen Mary here and when filling the same placing in the Flying Childers two starts back. Last time out, she appreciated the drop in grade when accounting for some decent rivals at Ayr and this race was identified as a target some time ago by her rookie trainer Jo Hughes.
Peter Chapple-Hyam is doubly represented by Chunky Diamond and MY PROPELLER, with the latter looking the stable first string. Consistency has not been her strong point this season (form figures of '71018') but she did nothing wrong when winning the Roses Stakes at York's Ebor meeting in cosy fashion and would have finished closer last time out at Doncaster but for stumbling when coming out of the stalls. Granted a decent break, she looks a big threat to the favourite and there are no concerns over the ground as she looked to be appreciating the quick surface when striding out well on the Newmarket gallops this week. At 6/1 with Ladbrokes, she's a shade of value too.
2:40 Grosvenor Casinos Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) 1m4f
This race features the reappearance of last season's St Leger winner ARCTIC COSMOS and he's the best horse on the ratings by some way, while he also escapes a penalty for his Group 1 win. All in all, it looks a shrewd bit of placing by his trainer John Gosden and although you have to take his fitness on trust after an absence of 385 days, I fancy he can make his first run back a winning one.
He will have to be pretty straight, mind you, as he faces a couple of progressive rivals in Roscommon winner Quest For Peace, who is having his first run for Luca Cumani since being acquired from Aidan O'Brien, and Lost In The Moment, who was only beaten a head in the Goodwood Cup back in July, before finishing seventh in the Ebor. Throw in Cambridgeshire fourth Nanton and it's clear this is not going to be an easy comeback for the St Leger hero but the upside is that we can back him at 5/2 with William Hill.
3:15 John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) 6f
This looks a good opportunity for ELZAAM (4/1 William Hill) to get his head back in front after a series of credible efforts in Group 1 company. After winning a Listed race at Newbury back in May, the Roger Varian-trained colt was aimed at the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and ran an excellent fourth, despite not appreciating the soft ground. The hard race he had there might have been responsible for a sub-par effort (eighth) in the July Cup on his next outing and a slow start didn't help his chances in the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock, where he stayed on well for fifth behind Dream Ahead. Back on a course he handles well - he has a Coventry Stakes second to go with his Golden Jubilee fourth - and with ground conditions to suit, he must take all the beating.
He probably has Genki to beat. Roger Charlton's sprinter never seems to run a bad race and was one place ahead of him in the Betfred last time out, but carries top weight here and is 3lb worse off. Dinkum Diamond is another to consider although he's arguably better over 5f, while the eight-year-old War Artist has a bit to find on form.
3:50 totescoop6 Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) 7f
Several of these have been running well in the big sprint handicaps but I'm going to concentrate on those with Ascot form in the book and that leads me to HAWKEYETHENOO, who landed the Victoria Cup over course and distance back in May. Granted, he finished well down the field when returned to the track in July and was a never-dangerous tenth in the Ayr Gold Cup last time, when possibly in need of the run, but I fancy he can bounce back here under Kieren Fallon, who was on board when the gelding won a big handicap at York last season. Take the 10/1 with William Hill.
It pays to fire more than one arrow at these sort of races and MANASSAS is another to have won over course and distance this season, that coming in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He's hardly been sighted in five starts since but as a result he's been dropped by the handicapper to a mark of 96, which is just 1lb higher than his last winning one, and it would be no surprise to see him return to form here. Some other punters clearly agree as he's been nibbled at in the betting all week and is now a best-priced 20/1 (from 33/1) with Stan James. Given his liking for Ascot and his slipping mark, he's still worth backing each-way at that price.
Selections:-
2.05 My Propeller
2.40 Arctic Cosmos
3.15 Elzaam (NAP)
3.50 Hawkeyethenoo / Manassas (each-way)
