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2010 Dubai Carnival tip - Thursday 4 February Meydan preview

Nick Wilby thinks Crowded House could run a big race at Meydan on Thursday.
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All eyes return to Meydan on Thursday as punters are treated to their second instalment of 2010 Dubai Carnival action.

It was great to see what looks set to be an exhilarating Carnival get underway last week, but punters were all thinking the same thing as the dust settled on the evening’s racing; how did Gloria De Campeao end up winning the first round of the Maktoum Challenge at a whopping 12/1?

With the best form in the book and with forecast odds of 7/2 it is staggering to think that we all let the superstar take the feature at double figure odds.  If it wasn’t for British raider Forgotten Voice falling from the clouds late on then it could have been an annihilation by the winner.

However, attention turns to this week’s action and the feature of the second day of the Carnival is without doubt the intriguing Al Rashidiya sponsored by Dubai International Group Three turf showpiece.

Alexandros currently leads the market at 15/8 (Ladbrokes) and based on his form last year it is hard to argue that he deserves his place at the head of the betting.  After chasing home Virtual in last season’s Group 1 Lockinge (defeated by the minimum distance) he seemed to lose his way a bit and was last seen finishing seventh in the Hong Kong Mile.  He is a horse who has long been held in high regard by connections and Godolphin will be hoping he is ready to win first time out at Meydan.  If he returned to the form that saw him finish third behind the mighty Gladiatorus in last year’s Dubai Duty Free he should take this.

He faces a horse I have been eagerly waiting to see return in the shape of Brian Meehan’s 2008 Racing Post Trophy winner CROWDED HOUSE (7/2, William Hill).  A long time favourite for last season’s 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby, he fluffed his lines on his seasonal debut and his colours were lowered in the Dante behind Black Bear Island.  The form of that race was always highly suspect and it was nice to see him finish a very creditable sixth behind six-time Group 1-winning superstar Sea The Stars at Epsom.  He was beaten eight lengths by John Oxx’s wonderhorse but he cruised into the race three furlongs from home and looked to have a superb chance of redeeming his lofty reputation.  However, he halted under pressure as soon as the field hit the two-furlong pole and it was clear he didn’t stay the twelve furlong trip.

He tackles 1m1f at Meydan on Thursday evening and with the distanceto suit, he is of great interest with trainer Brian Meehan promising punters he retains all his ability.  The one negative has to be his absence from the track for eight months and Meehan has warned that the son of Rainbow Quest may need the run.

Nonetheless, with Frozen Fire (11/2, VCBet) not likely to appreciate the drop in trip and with Alexandros a very short price, I am willing to take a chance on the horse and odds of 7/2 (William Hill) are not too stingy for one of his ability. 

Another British raider that could be set to run a cracker at Meydan is Brian Meehan’s GALLAGHER (12/1, Bet365) who takes some top class form to Dubai for his Carnival debut.  He tackles the 3:10 Dubai International Billet Trophy and will face a warm order in the shape of Jeremy Noseda’s Stoic (EVS, Sky Bet).  Stoic deserves to be favourite but there is no way I would want to back the horse at that price and while he could win, the value lies with the selection.

Group 1 and Group 2 placed as a juvenile, big things were expected of Gallagher last season and it would be fair to say he was a shade disappointing.  A defeat in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on his seasonal reappearance was put right when he cruised to success in a Class 3 event at Newbury and he finished the season fifth in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes.  The form of the latter would put him into contention here and he is of great interest ahead of his debut on the Tapeta surface at Meydan.

Nick Wilby’s advice:

Back Crowded House at odds of 7/2 (William Hill)
Back Gallagher each-way at odds of 12/1 (Bet365)

Follow this link to William Hill to see all the markets ahead of Thursday's card at Meydan.

Watch all the action live online with Betfair Live.


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2010 Dubai Carnival tip - Thursday 4 February Meydan preview

All eyes return to Meydan on Thursday as punters are treated to their second instalment of 2010 Dubai Carnival action.

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