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1000 Guineas Betting Tips - Who'll Win the 1000 Guineas?

NEWMARKET, ENGLAND - MAY 01: Jockey Joseph O'Brien (L) with his father the trainer Aidan O'Brien at Newmarket racecourse on May 01, 2011 in Newmarket, England. (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/ Getty Images)

The unbeaten Maybe will have 17 rivals to beat when she lines up for Sunday's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, for which she's a red-hot favourite.

Could it be Maybe?
Aidan O'Brien's filly looks to hold all the aces ahead of the first fillies' Classic of the season. It's often said that the 1000 Guineas is the final two-year-old race of the season and the statistics tend to back that up with eight of the last 10 winners having raced in a Group race during their juvenile campaign. Maybe gets a big fat tick on that score having won at every level from Group 3 to Group 1, that coming in the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her final start, and she can even boast a win over the colts in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot.

She's yet to tackle a mile with her wins coming over 6f and 7f but her sire Galileo is a strong influence for stamina and the step up in trip could see her in an even better light, while she's already proved she can handle cut in the ground. Crucially, she's enjoyed an interrupted preparation and the vibes coming out of her stable this spring have all been positive, so there's very little not to like, except to say she's a short price at the current 6/4.

Who can beat her?
With nothing coming out of the home trials, the main opposition is provided by Godolphin, who are represented by Lyric Of Light and Discourse, and the French-trained Mashoora (7/1 general). After making a winning start at Deauville in August, the latter was beaten fair and square on her next two starts but looked a different filly altogether when recording a cosy victory in the Prix Imprudence on her reappearance this season. That was the route taken by the 2008 1000 Guineas winner Natagora and like that filly she possesess a potent turn of foot, but she does have to prove she stays a mile. Her breeding suggests she ought to relish it but connections reckon it might be "stretching her" at this stage of her career, and no doubt exaggerated waiting tactics will be employed.

There are no such concerns over either of the Godolphin runners. Discourse (9/1 Paddy Power) looked a class act when running away with the Sweet Solera Stakes over 7f last August and many of her close relatives have excelled over a mile or further. Her long absence off the track through injury is a worry, though, and she didn't impress everyone when working after racing at the Craven meeting. Her stablemate Lyric Of Light (7/1 bet365) could therefore prove a bigger threat to Maybe and like the Ballydoyle runner she boasts Group 1 winning form as a juvenile, that coming in the Fillie's Mile on her final start when seeming not to like the fast ground. On the downside, that Newmarket race has not been a reliable guide, given that the last winner to land the Guineas was Bosra Sham in 1996.

Sticking with the market leaders, the Ralph Beckett-trained Moonstone Magic is now as low as 6/1, having been supplemented for this race following her six length win in the Fred Darling. Considering she only made her racecourse debut eight days prior to that when dotting up in a Leicester maiden, she's clearly improving at a rate of knots and this mudlark won't mind the soft ground one bit.

Any decent outsiders?
This has been one of the hardest Classic to predict with eight of the last 12 winners being returned at double-figure odds, so it's well worth trying to dig an outsider out. It could be Diala (16/1 Ladbrokes) as she looked a bit unlucky when beaten by Lyric Of Light (got first run that day) on her debut at Newmarket and made no mistake when landing a maiden on her return to the track in October. Her trainer William Haggas is flying. The Fugue and Gray Pearl need to improve dramatically on what they've shown so far but you wouldn't rule it out.

What's the verdict?
I might run the risk of being called "predictable" but there's no getting away from the claims of MAYBE, who is a strong fancy at 6/4 (William Hill) to keep her unbeaten record intact and give Aidan O'Brien his second 1000 Guineas win. The recent rain is very much in her favour as while we know she handles it, it will seriously inconvenience several of her rivals, with the exception of Moonstone Magic. She could be the one to follow the favourite home with Diala suggested as the best each-way bet.


 

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1000 Guineas Betting Tips - Who'll Win the 1000 Guineas?

The unbeaten Maybe will have 17 rivals to beat when she lines up for Sunday's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, for which she's a red-hot favourite.

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