With Cheltenham and Aintree behind us, it's time to focus on the upcoming Newmarket Classics, the 1000 and 2000 Guineas.
The problem with betting on these races at this stage of the season is that we don't know which of last season's juveniles have trained on, while it's also inevitable that some of those prominent in the betting will be either forced out through injury or will miss the race for alternative targets. That said, in the last five seasons, around 70 per cent of the horses who were 10/1 or shorter in either of the Guineas markets at the beginning of April came under starter's orders, and the vast majority were sent off at shorter odds on the day. Therefore, providing you are fairly confident that your fancy is going to run, my advice would be to get stuck in now.
Let's start with the 1000 Guineas in which Rainbow View is already home and hosed, according to the betting. John Gosden's filly has beaten every filly put in front of her so far, including when winning the Fillies' Mile at Ascot with a ton in hand, and is proven with give underfoot and on fastish ground. As for her preparation, Gosden seems perfectly happy with her and you can bank on him having her spot on for the race on May 3rd. OK, we're not going to get rich backing her at a best-priced 7/4 (Sportingbet, Betfred), but there are a lot worse 7/4 shots than her running day in day out and I can see her going off around evens.
Serious Attitude (7/1 Coral) is next in the betting and rightly so as she was one of the best juveniles of last season and, on pedigree, should stay 1m no problem. She too is working nicely, according to her trainer Rae Guest, and would be half the price she is now if trained by one of the bigger names, so the 7/1 each-way about her is perfectly acceptable, especially with doubts about several of the others even turning up. No doubt something will come out of this week's trials at Newmarket and Newbury, but I reckon they would have to a bit special to trouble the current market leaders.
The 2000 Guineas is more a muddling affair at this stage as, unlike the fillies' equivalent, there is nothing with a totally convincing profile. Aidan O'Brien's Mastercraftsman is the current favourite at 5/1 (Ladbrokes) but that's more to do with his trainer's record (won four of the last seven runnings) than what he's shown on the racecourse. Last season, he struggled home by a nose in the National Stakes and was well beaten in France afterwards, so there is no temptation to back him.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if his stablemate Rip Van Winkle usurps him as the stable first string come race day. He looked a classier sort last season and had no sort of run when beaten in the Dewhurst. The setback he had at the start of the year is not ideal but he is not a horse who takes a lot of work to get fit and is described as a "natural" at home. Of the 12 horses that O'Brien has run in the 2000 Guineas, 11 were sent off at a shorter price than they were on April 1st, so my advice is to back Rip Van Winkle now at the generally available 8/1.
Of the rest, the well-touted Naaqoos has already had his bubble burst in France and is an unlikely runner, while Evasive (10/1 Victor Chandler) and Sea The Stars (16/1 Coral) have had setbacks. Delegator (8/1 Blue Square) has been all the rage in recent days on the back of some impressive home work, but he might need soft ground to be at his very best. His stablemate Crowded House (14/1 Stan James) is more likely to run in the Dante Stakes en route to the Derby and Art Connoisseur (33/1 Totesport) is a doubtful stayer.
