Don't get stuck in the sand at Southwell! Here are 10 golden rules to help you make a profit out of betting on the all-weather.
1. Follow Gary Moore and you won't go far wrong. Backing all of the trainer's runners on the all-weather over the last five seasons would have made you a level-stakes profit of around £70, a remarkable feat considering he has sent out over 1000 runners in that time.
2. Follow Neil Callan. The jockey is one of the strongest and most tactically astute riders on the all-weather, and he does particularly well at Great Leighs, where a recent double took his tally to six wins from just 30 rides.
3. Check a horse's breeding when assessing its chances. The progeny of certain sires seem to take to all-weather racing better than others. On the Polytrack surfaces at Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Kempton and Great Leighs, Haafhd is doing remarkably well with his first crop of runners, while Captain Rio's progeny do best on the Fibresand at Southwell, as do those of his father Pivotal.
4. Follow the top apprentices. The low grade handicaps that make up the majority of racing are often contested by exposed and closely matched horses, so the claim of a promising rider can make all the difference. Two riders to follow this season are Frederik Tylicki and Andrea Atzeni.
5. Back the fastest horse in sprints (5f and 6f). This might seem like the obvious thing to do, but front runners and prominent racers have a tremendous record over sprint distances, particularly at Southwell and Wolverhampton. Beware, though, too much pace up front can play into the hands of the hold-up horses.
6. Treat Southwell form with caution. Horses that run well on the Fibresand surface are unlikely to transfer their form to the four Polytrack surfaces as they ride very differently, and vice versa.
7. Follow George Baker at Lingfield. The rider is one the best judges of pace on all the Polytrack courses, but particularly so at Lingfield where backing all his rides over the past five seasons would have yielded a staggering level-stakes profit of over £110. When he rides for Gary Moore, he's on the winner around 25% of the time.
8. Avoid debutants at Southwell. The deeper Fibresand surface at the track produces more kickback than Polytrack, which is a hostile environment for inexperienced horses. Percentage-wise, more debutants win first time out on the Polytrack courses.
9. Avoid horses drawn low in races over sprint to middle distances at Kempton. This was perfectly illustrated by results on the 17th and 18th November this year, when no fewer than 12 of the 16 races were won by horses coming from a double-figure stall. Given that those drawn highest are going the shortest way round against or just off the inside rail, this is a trend that should continue.
10. Keep an eye on the weather at Southwell. Wet weather makes the track bind together and, as a result, it becomes much quicker, meaning it is even more difficult for horses to make ground up from off the pace. During dry spells or during periods of hard frost, due to the way the track is harrowed, the Fibresand becomes even more testing, placing an even greater empathic on stamina.
