The biggest markets for Tuesday's midterm elections in the United States will be those on the overall control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
It is widely agreed that there will be a sizeable nationwide shift away from the Democrats, but what does that mean for the key betting markets and where can you get involved?
The House consists of 435 Congressman from across the country, each representing districts of around 700,000 people, whereas the Senate is just 100, two for each of the 50 states. That is precisely why the biggest swing will be seen in the House. It is almost certain the Democrats will lose their control and the 1.1 in the Betfair market seems a fair, even generous, price on a Republican win
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House of Representatives
Based on the most recent polls, RealClearPolitics currently predicts 179 seats for the Democrats, 223 for the Republicans and 33 toss-ups. On that basis alone, you would say the bands on the Betfair market are too low, with '221 Seats or Over' being the
maximum runner in the market.
Perhaps a better market to watch is total Democrat seats, with the low-end runner '210 Seats or Less' being slightly more realistic because 31 of the 33 toss-ups in the RealClearPolitics projections are currently held by Democrats.
Of these 31, many are very winnable for the Republicans. Many voted heavily for John McCain in the 2008 Presidential race, just look at the Alabama 2nd, Arizona 8th, Missouri 4th, Texas 17th and Virginia 9th for five examples. Many of these districts, including all five examples here, typically yield Democratic Congressmen, but this year is very different, with the election being a virtual referendum on President Obama's performance.
I'd say there's a 70% chance the Democrats won't reach that 210 mark, so if you're not afraid of short prices look to back '210 or Less' at anything from 1.4 to 1.5.
Senate
This is going to be far more interesting than the House as control of the Senate is a real coin toss. Current prices put the Democrats on 1.82, Republicans on 5.5 and no overall control on 3.45.
It's important to remember that this should be the most-traded market on the night by some margin, so you'll be able to trade in and out with far greater ease. Of all the markets in which to have a passing punt on these midterms, this is definitely the one.
RealClearPolitics currently puts 48 seats for the Democrats, 45 for the Republicans and seven undecided. I have already looked at five of those seven undecideds here, the only two not in there are Colorado and West Virginia.
Colorado is neck-and-neck with Republican Ken Buck just 1% ahead in latest polls, with West Virginia similarly close, though Democrat Joe Manchin will be the happier with a 3.5% lead. Both, however, are very much in the margin of error and difficult to call.
If I had to plump a guess at what will happen in the seven toss-ups, I'd say four (Nevada, Illinois, Washington and California) will stay Democrat, two will go Republican (Pennsylvania and Colorado) and one, West Virginia, is anyone's guess.
On that basis, the 1.82 available on the Democrats retaining the Senate seems a good bet, especially so when you consider the only other concern is Wisconsin, currently held by a Democrat but leaning Republican, and three Republican-held seats are likely but by no mean certain to stay red.
Current Vice President Joe Biden recently said, "we will keep control of the Senate for certain", and whilst the VP may be king of the gaffe, on this I think he's right.
Get on the Democrats to hold the Senate at 1.82, but just be sure to forget that he went on to say, "I also believe we'll keep control of the House." No chance, Joe.
