Dermot Ahern’s decision not to stand in the next Irish General Election has put a question mark over whether or not Fianna Fail will be able to retain a seat in the northern region.

Sign up with Paddy Power through Bettingpro and get a free £100 bet on their Louth Constituency betting markets.

In a constituency where Fianna Fail would’ve once been long odds-on to win at least one seat Paddy Power are now quoting just 11/8 that Fianna Fail will win none at the next election. The odds on the party retaining one seat are just 4/7, a far cry off the 1/50 odds Ahern would have commanded back in 2007.

Meanwhile, the odds on who will succeed Brian Cowen as leader of Fianna Fail have also changed significantly following Ahern’s announcement. At 7/1, the Justice Minister had been one of the frontrunners for the job but his exit from the race has seen Michael Martin’s odds slashed to 10/11 from 6/5 while Mary Hanafin’s odds have been shortened slightly to 5/4 from 6/4.

Sharon McHugh, spokesperson for Paddy Power said: “Ahern’s decision not to stand in the next election is yet one more headache for Fianna Fail. There’s now a real possibility that FF will fail to occupy one of the four seats up for grabs.” 

LOUTH CONSTITUENCY BETTING

How many seats will Fianna Fail win in Louth?
  11/8     None
   4/7     One
  12/1     Two
 100/1     Three
1000/1  Four

*Naturally excluding the Ceann Comhairle

Next leader of Fianna Fail after Brian Cowen?   
 10/11    Micheal Martin
   5/4     Mary Hanafin
   5/1     Brian Lenihan
  25/1     Batt O'Keefe
  28/1     Eamon O'Cuiv
  33/1     Mary Coughlan
  33/1     Noel Dempsey
  40/1     Brendan Smith
  40/1     Sean Connick
  66/1     Tony Killeen
  66/1     John McGuinness
  80/1     Pat Carey