So after all the will they-won't they talk the MotoGP circus has sensibly decided to trust the science and go ahead with the Japanese GP in Motegi.
Delayed last year by the volcanic ash cloud, and this year by the earthquake and tsunami, it's a thoroughly pleasing sight to see things looking normal just north of Tokyo. On the track, things were 'situation normal' as well today.
Honda own the Motegi track, and do thousands of miles of testing here, so it shouldn't be surprising to see the four factory Hondas at the top of the time sheets. With the exception of Jorge Lorenzo, they've consistently been the best bikes all year so it's not surprising they head the pack here. Interestingly though, Honda haven't won a GP in Japan since way back in 2004. Expect that to change come Sunday.
Casey Stoner can't wrap up the championship this weekend, but he can take one step closer to it. The dream scenario is to clinch the title at home in Australia next race which seems likely. Race day at Phillip Island is also Casey's birthday so expect a double celebration. To make sure that happens, he needs to firstly beat Lorenzo here.
Lorenzo has struggled so far this weekend. Just as at Aragon, I expect the Spaniard to challenge for a podium on Sunday but a win is most likely out of the question. It's odd seeing the reigning world champion as long as 5.4 for the win but it's an accurate price.
Stoner on the other hand is favourite yet again. At 2.08 it seems a sensible way to double your money. He was quickest this morning, and narrowly second in the afternoon despite going the wrong way with his set up. He's won eight races already in 2011 and the only time he's been off the podium was when he was knocked off by an errant Valentino Rossi. And that's the closest Rossi's been to Stoner all year in more ways than one. It's a brave person to back against Stoner at the moment, but I think this may just be the weekend to do so.
Dani Pedrosa was quickest today and has a point to prove in Japan. With Honda since 2006, he was meant to be the one to bring the manufacturer their maiden 800cc title. Instead, Stoner is going to do it in his first year on the bike. And he's won more races this year than Pedrosa has in the last three.
You could argue Dani's been unlucky this year, but you could say that every year. The point is, there's egg on face in that side of the garage and Pedrosa wants to impress in front of the big bosses. With Stoner concerned about protecting the lead heading to Australia, this might be the weekend for a Pedrosa win. With that in mind, and his excellent early pace, a Pedrosa oddity in its own right, a 3.25 bet for the win is the best value of the weekend for mine.
Lorenzo will have his work cut out against the other two Hondas of Marco Simoncelli and Andrea Doviozoso if he wants a podium this weekend. Dovi's just been offered a factory supported Honda for 2012 year and he'll be keen to repay that faith by making it a Repsol Honda 1-2-3. He always does well at Motegi and a 2.04 podium bet on the Italian is a worthwhile investment.
There could be some rain over the weekend which could turn the whole thing on it's head, and maybe even bring the Ducati's into the picture, but if it stays dry weather wise, it'll be raining Hondas on the track.
Recommended Bets at betfair
Back Dani Pedrosa for the win at 3.25
Back Andrea Doviozoso for the Top Three at 2.04
