For the last two rounds there was no way Stoner should have won. He was well off the pace in Laguna and then his team-mate Dani Pedrosa was in a shoo-in for Brno. But Stoner won both races and he's now a commanding 32 points ahead in the standings. For Lorenzo, Indy looms as a must win, or at the very least, he must beat Stoner.

The track has been resurfaced since last year and in the early sessions riders complained that it was like riding of glass. The racing line will improve over the weekend as rubber gets laid down but it will be a brave man who strays off it with an overtaking move on Sunday. That's going to put an extra emphasis on qualifying.

Stoner was quickest on Friday and is a 3.35 favourite currently at Betfair. It's a long price for the Australian but that has a lot to do with the unpredictable nature of the circuit right now and how close the top guys are. Stoner said yesterday this was easily his least favourite circuit of the season and he doesn't trust the surface. If it comes to a dog fight on Sunday there's no question he won't risk crashing and will happily settle for a podium. That said, he's proved time and time again in 2011 that betting against him is to be done at your own peril - in that light 3.35 is excellent value and you won't see a Stoner price that good for for some time.

Lorenzo on the other hand, has struggled. He couldn't handle the lack of grip and ended the day fourth. Reports are that he's a little under the weather as well. He needs to find some more pace today and 4.2 seems about right for the Spaniard. It will take a huge effort for him to win but that might be the only way to finish ahead of Stoner so expect an all-or-nothing approach.

The biggest chance of a Stoner upset should come from Lorenzo's team-mate Ben Spies. He's the only guy who has been right on it from the outset this weekend. Spies' form has been on the up and, unlike most of the riders, he enjoys Indy. He was on the podium here last year and took his maiden pole as well.

While Stoner can't afford to risk it all, Spies can. The best assistance he can offer his team-mate his to beat Casey. On form, Spies' price of 7.0 makes no sense at all. He's easily the best value bet of the weekend and at anything near 2.0 for a Top 3 result I'd be snapping that up ASAP.

Of the rest, Pedrosa generally does well at Indy and at 3.4 will attract a few backers. He's been typical Dani this weekend, building up speed and he'll be thereabouts on Sunday. As for the Ducatis. Lay the lot of them again. Things are on the up in Bologna but nowhere near as quickly as they'd like.

Unlike the east coast of the States, fine weather is tipped for the whole weekend so make sure you switch on for the race in prime time on Sunday night. It looks sure to play a huge role in the title chase.

Back Casey Stoner @ 3.35 and Ben Spies @ 7.0

Back Ben Spies for the podium at 2.0