Casey Stoner was running away with the Italian GP until a tyre problem put him in serious strife at half distance. It was then that Jorge Lorenzo did what a defending world champion should do. He hunted him down and took one of the best wins of his career on a weekend where no-one, myself included, gave the Yamahas a chance.

The gap to Stoner is now just 19 points which will delight Lorenzo, but Sachsenring is one of the very few tracks on the calendar where he has never won. Stoner has just the one win however back in 2008.

The Australian's preparation on Friday was hampered by a huge crash on an out lap. He was not injured but his confidence clearly took a knock as his times dropped off in the section of the track where he fell. He finished the day fourth, which is the first time he's been out of the Friday top three in living memory. His price has drifted to 2.82 but I expect that to come in tomorrow when the confidence returns. It's also a track that should suit the Honda well with its short, sharp, point it and shoot section.

Lorenzo is a second favourite at 3.35 at Betfair. He's a man on a mission after the stunning result in Mugello. He, along with Marco Simoncelli, were the two most consistent riders today and the Spaniard looks calm and focused once more. With Stoner's unexpected troubles in Italy, and his crash this morning, Jorge can smell blood and would love to take another chunk out of his rival's lead. The next round is Laguna Seca, a track Stoner loves, so Lorenzo knows how important a victory here is. With all that in mind, I think he'll be the man to beat this weekend.

Simoncelli was again quickest on a Friday. Another trend is his inability to break that podium duck. He really should've been on the podium in Italy but come race day he wasn't even in the battle. He will get there soon, he has to, but as long as his price is under 2.0 for a top three, he's a lay bet for me until he can prove some consistency.

The final podium spot is a bit of a raffle. The top five were within a few tenths today which is a refreshing change. Nicky Hayden always goes well in Germany, Dani Pedrosa is riding well again and Ben Spies has hit form. Valentino Rossi is still struggling, not helped by a fast crash today so he's still a lay bet for the top three at almost any price. Andrea Dovizioso, on the other hand, is riding better than ever. His second place in Italy was one of his career best and his string of podiums in 2011 has been hugely impressive. At 2.44 for a Top 3, that looks a nice way to double your investment based on how Dovi's been travelling of late.

The top five are all close so it's shaping up as another good one. There's a chance of rain, yet again, on Sunday so that could really upset the apple cart. If not, expect a good scrap between Stoner and Lorenzo at the front and an all-in bar brawl for the final spot on the box.

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at 3.35

Back Andrea Dovizioso for the top three at 2.44