Contrary to what you may think, market-makers do make mistakes from time to time. In 1999 the cricket trading team at Sporting Index produced the biggest market-making “cock-up” in sports spread betting history.

In the May of 1999 Sporting Index had just unveiled over 100 special markets on the Cricket World Cup; which was less than a week away. The cricket trading team had worked back-breaking hours pricing up an incredible number of markets, but were blissfully unaware of the fact that they were about to serve up the biggest “rick” in the spread betting history. The market in question was a prediction on the total number of wides bowled in the 42 game tournament and was pitched at 245-265.

Now, the traders hadn’t just plucked any old price from out the sky. There had been hours of research on the number of wides bowled in previous tournaments including 1996 (India and Pakistan), 1992 (Australia and New Zealand), 1987 (India and Pakistan), 1983 (England), 1979 (England) and 1975 (England). The feeling was that there were going to be fewer wides than usual in what was now an age of disciplined bowling. It was genuinely felt that the make-up was more likely to be in the 100s than in the 300s and that an average of around six wides a match was spot on.  The traders had not however factored the impact of the new white ball in English conditions.

The phones were red hot within hours of the prices being released and cricket spread betting enthusiasts were knocking each other over to buy at 265 and then 270 as word of the pricing error spread. In fact, the price had moved up 100 points inside the first 20 minutes of trading and was close to the 500 mark before a ball had been bowled. It was now public knowledge that the bowlers were going to have extreme difficulty controlling the swing generated by the white ball in English conditions and our prediction was miles out. The entire trading floor realized the firm had made an expensive mistake well before 21 wides were bowled in England’s opening encounter with Sri Lanka. The next day saw another 55 wides bowled in 2 matches and the price continued to spiral out of control. Eventually, when the 979th and final wide was bowled in the final, Sporting Index had lost a shade over £1/2 million on what was essentially a novelty market.

Spread betting market-makers do not always get it right. The tale of the World Cup wides is just the most memorable of a number of misjudgements. It’s often far too easy to forget the fact that you are just taking on other humans and challenging their opinions. If you do your research, you’ve got every chance of beating these guys at their own game. Here are some suggestions that might help your cricket spread betting better.

Wait on the weather
It sounds obvious, but so many punters dive in on player performances or individual batsman test runs before they’ve seen the weather. It really is suicide to bet on markets like these the day before without knowing the conditions. Wait till 40 minutes or so before 1st ball before placing a cricket spread bet.

Don’t spread bet for the sake of it
Don’t have a spread bet for the sake of having a bet; those bets often turn out to be the most expensive! Before you trade, make sure you are confident that you’re doing the right thing.

Don't be afraid to close
It’s very tempting to close a trade that’s going well early for a profit and leave one running that’s going badly in the hope that things will get better.

Don't bet without research
Strauss should get more than 250 runs in the series? We’ve all been there before and dived in without doing any proper research.  There are so many statistics available online that you can do as much research as any market-maker and in some cases more.

Make your own prices before trading
Do your research first and then make your own prices afterwards. Only then should you look at what the price is and see whether you and they have genuine differences of opinion. It’s often too tempting to do it in reverse and end up clouding your own original view.

Be aware of the new ball
There is always a danger of being sucked in to buy a batsman or his team runs in a test match when he is knocking it all over the shop. Just be aware of when that new ball is due, it might just be a few overs away and can change the whole match.

Source: Sportingindex.com