Betting ante-post remains one of the more challenging gambling opportunities in the market place.
It can be incredibly rewarding, but just as often, infuriating and frustrating.
No meeting has a higher profile from an ante-post perspective than the Cheltenham Festival. From the moment horses cross the line at one Festival, the markets for the main events take shape for the next Festival twelve months later.
Whilst pinpointing the likely targets for the likes of Kauto Star, Master Minded or Punjabi are not difficult, there is little doubt that the expanded programme at the Festival has made things a lot harder for those seeking out ante-post value.
Your correspondent still has nightmares about two of the greatest chasers of the modern era.
Late in 2005, I snaffled some 20/1 about the future Paul Nicholls star for the 2006 Champion Chase. After winning the Tingle Creek, his odds for the Queen Mother contracted sharply and in March he went off the 2/1 favourite.
Having tanked along early in the race, Kauto Star met the fence in front of the stands all wrong and fell.
The same owner/trainer combination provided another ‘memorable’ moment with their other star, Master Minded.
Having witnessed his first win in the UK at Sandown in January 2008, I firmly believed that the Ryanair at the Festival would be his target.
Having taken 20/1, I was immediately encouraged by connections confirmation that the 2m 5f race was his preferred Cheltenham option.
However, things took a turn for the worse when he went to Newbury and hacked up from Voy Por Ustedes in the Game Spirit and it became obvious that the Champion Chase was to be his race at the Festival.
Predictably, Master Minded proceeded to destroy the field in the Queen Mother, putting up the performance of the Festival in the process.
Right horse, wrong race.
One of the principal challenges already posed by the 2010 Cheltenham Festival concerns the three novice hurdle events.
With Dunguib already as short as evens for the Supreme, the vast majority of the novice hurdle winners in both the UK and Ireland now get quotes for at least two races. Only runners who look to have more speed than stamina – Menorah, Pepe Simo being two examples, now get quotes for just the two-miler at Cheltenham.
The situation is not helped by trainers and other connections glibly stating in media interviews about ‘keeping their options open’ etc etc.
Things are not much better as the trip increases ….. the market for the Sun Alliance/Ballymore/Baring Bingham/Neptune Investments Hurdle is dominated by horses who are just as likely to have entries in the three-miler at the Festival.
There is also now the handicap route for novices.
This relatively new route has been favoured by quite a few trainers in recent seasons, so a novice prospect for the 2m 5f event, could also get a Coral Cup entry.
The message is – caveat emptor – buyer beware.
Ante-post betting is a lot of fun and can give you a great slice of value at the major meetings, but, especially with the Cheltenham Festival in mind, you need to be more aware than ever that the number of targets for many horses can be two or three.
