Contrary to popular opinion, the Grand National is not a lottery of a race. Instead, it is actually one of the most reliable races to solve as several of the runners can be eliminated from calculations from a stats perspective. Here are my 10 golden rules that when applied can help punters eliminate those very horses unlikely to win.
1. Ignore horses aged seven or younger and those aged 13 or older. The last winning seven-year-old came in 1940, while the last teenager to win was in 1923.
2. Knock out any horse who has fallen more than twice in their careers.
3. Rule out any French-bred horses (those with a suffix of ‘FR‘ after their name). Plenty have tried, and failed in recent years, but no such horse has won since Lutteur in 1909.
4. Stay away from novices. The race is a severe test even for the more experienced horses.
5. Ignore horses that are set to carry more than 11st 5lb. This year, the bottom weights are likely to be carrying around 10st 8lb, which gives the horses with more weight a better chance. However, the fact remains that only Red Rum in the last 50 years has carried more weight to victory.
6.Throw out all non-stayers. Every winner in the past four decades had already won over 3m+, so check the form before placing your bet.
7. Put a line through any horse wearing headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces). Earth Summit wore blinkers when winning in 1998, but the only other blinkered winner since the war was a slightly fortuitous one - Foinavon!
8. Get rid of those horses who have had less than four runs this season. Every winner in the past 10 years had had at least four runs in preparation for the big race.
9. Concentrate on those horses rated between 136 and 147. That group has provided every single winner in the past decade.
10. Overlook anything that hasn’t had a recent run. Each of the past 10 winners had previously run in the past two months.
Apply all these trends and you are left with a handful of horses, including the ante post favourite CLOUDY LANE (6/1 sportingbet) and the strongly fancied SLIM PICKINGS (888sport, Betfred). They’re a must for any shortlist but, at bigger odds, BAILY BREEZE (66/1 Blue Square, Paddy Power) looks a great each way chance as the blinkers he normally wears are being left off, meaning he fits all the main stats. BLACK APALACHI (66/1 William Hill), currently one of two horses on 10st 8lb, is a sound jumper who has been running well in Ireland’s top 3m chases, including when runner-up in the Thyestes Chase in January. He too has worn headgear in the past but, if it is left off, he’s terrific each way value.
