With a worldwide television audience of 600 million people, The Grand National is one of England's greatest sporting events and every April the world’s most prestigious horse race manages to capture the imagination of a nation, Nick Wilby takes a look at this year's big race.
Last year punters were left stunned by 100/1 shock Mon Mome, but the victory was no fluke and supporters of the horse will have to settle for a best priced 11/1 (
Bet365) if they think he is up to emulating Red Rum and landing back-to-back victories in the National. Despite being raised 7lbs for his comfortable victory last year, punters will look to his creditable third in last month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup where he managed to grab Carruthers and Cooldine on the line and the light campaign has enjoyed this season with this race in mind. Williams, and every other trainer with a runner in the race, will be hoping that David Pipe allows Madison Du Berlais to take his chance under top weight meaning that the field would not be bumped up 3lbs for his and Notre Pere’s absence.
The current favourite for the race is Big Fella Thanks (8/1,
Sporting Bet), the choice of dual National winning jockey Ruby Walsh who will be looking to end Paul Nicholls’ hoodoo in the Liverpool feature. Walsh certainly knows how to win a Grand National with two victories in the race to his name and in Big Fella Thanks he saddles a horse that is officially 5lb well in, despite running off a 3lb higher mark than last year. After finishing sixth in 2009, the talented novice has been trained specifically for this race and an impressive victory over an inadequate trip at Newbury in March will have him spot on. That being said, his price is on the short side and punters who have backed the horse at 10/1 or above will be the only ones with a value bet on the favourite.
Big Fella Thanks’ highly touted stablemate Tricky Trickster (16/1,
Sky Bet) had been antepost favourite for the race before his Cheltenham Gold Cup flop and after beating only one horse home behind Imperial Commander last month, the Aon Chase winner hardly heads into the race on the back of an eye-catching preparation. If he were to win, he would become the first seven-year-old to do so in seventy years and he does not tick the boxes when it comes to trends. The same can be said about David Pipe’s The Package (14/1,
VCBet) who ran a blinder when a staying-on second in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham last month. Hugely talented but ultimately quirky, The Package is an interesting candidate, though he is unlikely to appreciate the atmosphere at Aintree and the edgy youngster will have to be on his best behaviour during the preliminaries.
Instead it may be best to take a chance on Willie Mullins’ Irish raider SNOWY MORNING (20/1,
William Hill) making it third time lucky in the world’s most famous steeplechase.
After finishing a very creditable third behind Comply Or Die when carrying 11st 1lb two years ago, Snowy Morning returned for another bite of the cherry last year, finishing ninth under 11st8lbs after making errors and stumbling very badly on the turn for home. He was in fifth place and looked to have every chance after jumping the last but tired under his hefty weight in the run in. Down 9lbs this year, he is now attractively weighted for a horse than has successfully negotiated the daunting Aintree fences on two separate occasions and while many will hold his tendency to make the odd mistake against him, his jumping has twice passed the ultimate test.
Still only ten years of age, Snowy Morning’s career is littered with top class form and impressive performances against some of jumping’s most seasoned superstars and he has been placed a remarkable 21 out of 29 times in his career. It is difficult to see why the handicapper has taken it upon himself to drop the horse 9lbs in the weights and he has been in fine form this year, racing over mostly inadequate distances, including when a good third to Tranquil Sea at Leopardstown last time out.
Versatile when it comes to ground, Willie Mullins’ superstar has proven on more than one occasion that he can handle soft or heavy conditions, though his backers would probably rather see the description more along the lines of Good to Soft to make sure the horse gets home over a whopping 4m4f. It is looking increasingly likely that Aintree will avoid the worst of the rain this week and more of a worry could be the injury sustained by jockey Davey Casey over the weekend. Set to ride the selection in Saturday’s big race, the jockey now faces an anxious race against time to get himself fit in time for the weekend and it will be a blow to the horse’s backers if his regular partner is not in the saddle. However Snowy Morning is a classy chaser who has long had the Grand National as his principal target and he fits all the trends of a future winner, being aged ten, almost certain to carry less than 11st 5lbs and most importantly, having been trained with the race in mind and he appeals as a very attractive each-way bet at 20/1.
2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play (22/1,
Sporting Bet) returns to Aintree after finishing fourth when racing off a 5lb higher mark last year and is respected, while 2008 National winner and 2009 runner-up Comply Or Die (28/1,
William Hill) is down 1lb and is more than capable of putting up another bold performance in Liverpool. Irish duo Abor Supreme (16/1,
Ladbrokes) and Black Apalachi (14/1,
VCBet) also enter calculations and are not easily passed over.
Nick Wilby's selection - SNOWY MORNING each-way (20/1,
William Hill)
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