It might be me but this year's Grand National looks more open than is normally the case and I'm struggling to find a winner.
One thing looks fairly certain though, that being bookmakers will be squeezing every ounce of value from the ante post market between now and 4.15pm Saturday and, if last year is anything to go by, will be shortening everything just before the off. Last year's winner 10/1 winner Don't Push It was not immune and the fact he paid 14.7/1 on the Tote and 18/1 on Betfair sends out a clear message. Get your bets on early!
What to back is the big question and I've narrowed it down to about a dozen. Seriously, the complexity of the race has changed so much in the last few years that you can now make a case of sorts for the entire field. There was a time when you could throw out a good proportion of the runners based on some tried and tested weights and ratings trends, but the quality of the horses entered has improved markedly and, as a result, the minimum rating required to get a run has gone up. Put simply, bad horses don't make the final 40 these days.
Don't Push It is a good case in point as he was the first horse to carry more than 11st 1lb to victory for 28 years and, given the shape of the race now, it's most unlikely to be another 28 years before the feat is repeated. Indeed, the eleven-year-old can be fancied to go well again, so well did he win last time, and his whole season has been geared towards a repeat. Tony McCoy will again take the ride and that alone will ensure he goes off at a single-figure price.
However, I fancy at least four ahead of him and, of these, the one that makes most appeal is BACKSTAGE (12/1 bet365), who was travelling supremely well just behind Don't Push It when he was brought down on the second circuit 12 months ago. Given his propensity to stay, he would surely have been involved at the finish and there can't be a horse in this year's race who has been so meticulously prepared than him.
His trainer Gordon Elliott is rapidly making a name for himself and knows exactly what it takes to win a National having sent out Silver Birch to do the business in 2007. Like that one, Backstage has been confined to Irish point-to-points, winning his last two (impressively), and as a consequence is able to line up here off the same mark of 148. That might prove to be a masterstroke and he wouldn't be the first horse to win the National after failing to get round the previous year.
Joining him in the portfolio is Racing Post Chase winner QUINZ (20/1 Blue Square), who is well-in here off a mark of 144, which is 9lb less than what the handicapper would like him to race off. Trends followers will say he can't win being a seven year-old novice, but they couldn't have horses with more than 11st winning a while back and look what happened there! The fact of the matter is he's an improving horse, a fluent jumper and is proven on a drier surface. Providing he stays (not a given by any means), he must go close.
Paul Nicholls has a terrible record in the National but I think NICHE MARKET (18/1 Stan James) will go close to breaking his duck. The 10-year-old already has a National to his name, having landed the Irish equivalent in 2009, and has had a breathing operation since running a cracking fifth - just over a length behind Denman - in this season's Hennessy. Granted, he was pulled up in last year's National but that was at the end of a hard season and he has been kept fresh and transferred to Nicholls with this race in mind. He too likes goodish ground.
Of the remainder, I can see both Silver By Nature and State Of Play going well. The former was last seen winning Haydock's Grand National Trial in great fashion and I don't think soft ground is as important to him as many people seem to think. State Of Play has already been placed twice in the race and the fact he hasn't run since Aintree last season is a plus as he's best fresh. I just can't see him winning though.
Those of you looking for a longshot could do a lot worse than by backing last year's Topham Chase winner ALWAYS WAINING at 66/1 with Paddy Power, who are 'non-runner, no bet'. That could be a useful concession to have on your side as he's needs four horses above him in the weights to come out before he's guaranteed a run. If he gets in, the 66/1 on a good-ground Aintree horse, carrying just 10st 2lb is going to look massive.
Here's my idea of the finishing order with recommended bets:
1. Backstage 2pts @ 12/1 bet365
2. Quinz 1pt each-way @ 20/1 Blue Square
3. Niche Market 1pt each-way @ 18/1 Stan James
4. Always Waining 0.5pt each-way @ 66/1 Paddy Power
