Zurich Classic of New Orleans Tips – Lay against the favourites

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by Bettingpro Staff

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Luke Donald (credit: Hunter Martin/Getty Images)

Luke Donald and Bubba Watson headline the Zurich Classic of New Orleans field, but laying against the pair could be a smart move this week.

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This is one of widest open tournaments of the season, often producing shock winners

Whether the Zurich Classic has been played at TPC Louisiana, or at English Turn in the year the regular course was decimated by Hurricane Katrina, it has rarely rewarded form students. Although last year's champ Bubba Watson was pickable and indeed our own Steve Rawlings dug him out at 34.0, the previous six champions were all available at big prices. Nick Watney, 2007 champion, did of course go on to better things, which cannot be said of Jason Bohn, Jerry Kelly, Andres Romero, Chris Couch or Tim Petrovic.

Bubba Watson will experience unprecedented attention and scrutiny

Obviously there's no fancy prices around on Bubba this year, in his first start since winning the Masters. His most loyal fans will doubtless make the plausible case that last year's win proves how well-suited he is to the layout and that he should be kept onside whilst hot. Personally, I'm rarely a fan of backing repeat winners anywhere, because of the extra pressure and media commitments that being defending champion entails. For Bubba, all that post-Augusta scrutiny means having to deal with a double burden. Becoming a major champion is hard work and in almost all cases, takes some time getting accustomed to. Short prices about such an erratic talent, (albeit a likeable one), is not my idea of value so I'll be laying him in the top-five and top-ten markets.

Luke Donald has questions to answer right now

Bubba's principal rival for favouritism is no more convincing either. Luke Donald was poor at Augusta and afterwards at one of his favourite US venues in the Heritage. Besides winning at Copperhead, Luke's 2012 campaign has notably lacked the ultra-consistency of the previous two seasons. Perhaps he's feeling the pressure of his new-found status as a permanent contender for world number one. Although he fared well enough in eighth last year, he was in much better form at the time and there's a strong argument that longer-hitters are better suited by this layout.

The nature of the course is ideal for laying short-priced favourites in-running

Taking on the favourites shouldn't be restricted to pre-tournament betting this week. TPC Louisiana was designed by Pete Dye, which usually means in-running carnage. As punters find out almost every year at Sawgrass and whenever Whistling Straits hosts a major, Dye has mastered the art of risk-reward golf, making it very hard to front-run and producing ideal in-running trading conditions. All previous leaderboards were tightly packed, ensuring plenty of in-running volatility between dozens of plausible candidates and increasing the likelihood of the lead frequently changing hands. Last year the top-12 were separated by only five shots, exactly as was the case in 2009 and in 2008, 11 players were separated by the same margin. Watney in 2007 was the only comfortable winner, but even in that year the rest were very tightly bunched, with only ten shots separating the next 54 players.

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