The road to the US PGA Championship continues this week with the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and, for the first time in a long time, we could see a surprise winner at Firestone Country Club.
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With only one triple-figure priced winner in 11 renewals of this event on this course, Firestone may seem like the last place to be backing rank outsiders, but there is a legitimate reason to think this year might be different. In truth, it's been hard enough getting double-figure prices about the Firestone champion, as this is one of the events Tiger Woods completely dominated at his peak, winning seven times. Plenty of outsiders made the places during those years, even if it felt like they were effectively playing a different event.
Clearly, the old rules no longer apply, and Woods rates poor value even at a career high of 23.0 this week. Naturally Tiger's demise means shorter odds for everyone else, but given the strength of this elite field, there are still plenty of interesting contenders available in our price range. Take the following pair of 2011 winners.
Another event Tiger monopolised at his peak was the Bay Hill Invitational, and this year's champion might also appreciate the similar emphasis on quality long-iron play at Firestone. Martin Laird has slipped off the radar since landing that second career title, but catches the eye at 160.0 on the basis of an impressive first half of the season.
In recent years, August has been the month when Laird comes to life, whether it was his breakthrough Fedex Cup run in 2008 or last year's narrow second at the Barclays. The likeliest explanation for Martin's summer figures is that the heat and dry, fast greens particularly reward his long-iron accuracy. That is very much the nature of Firestone, where last year's debut 16th was promising.
Rory Sabbatini has twice finished second in this event, to Tiger in 2007 and Stewart Cink three years earlier. Given that obvious liking for course conditions and some decent 2011 figures, 150.0 strikes me as way too big.
There is a school of thought that the notoriously volatile Sabbatini is a reformed character this year, for which supporting evidence can be found in a win at the Honda Classic and third place at Quail Hollow. However, I would also draw positives from his last two mid-division finishes in the US and British Opens. Sabbatini has an appalling record in those majors, highly prone to giving up, so it was notable to see him battling hard when all was lost, especially in horrific weather at Sandwich.
The trading advice is to have two units on each player, then place the following two lay orders on both at 15.0 and 3.0
Recommended Bets
2u Rory Sabbatini @ 150.0
2u Martin Laird @ 160.0
Place orders to lay both players 10u @ 15.0
Place orders to lay both players 20u @ 3.0
