The first golfing Major of the year was shaping up as one of the most open in recent memory until some Phil Mickelson magic at last week's Houston Open saw the enigmatic American left-hander take a stranglehold on the outright market.
Having been 11/1 at the start of last week, the man known as Phil The Thrill is now a top-priced 7/1 with Ladbrokes and that is standout. No wonder Stan James have admitted to feeling uncomfortable about their offer to refund all losing outright win bets (as free bets) on the Masters if either Mickelson or Woods are victorious. Given his Masters record of three victories, four thirds, two fifths, a sixth, a seventh and a tenth, it's hard to find anyone else with such convincing credentials and the new world No.3 looks sure to be in the mix again come Sunday.
However, it's not all cut and dried by any means and it's worth pointing out that Mickelson has never successfully defended here. Furthermore, he was languishing at 176th for driving accuracy up to last weekend, and even less convincing on the short putts - he three-putted four times over the course of the week. That said, I think he's a must for the staking plan, if only to ensure a small profit on the week, with the following four players joining him in the betting portfolio.
Nick Watney @ 18/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
With the usual Masters market principles hardly covering themselves in glory in the early weeks of the season, punters have been quick to latch on to the Californian, and it's easy to see why. He hits it long and straight, is a much improved putter, and has been in terrific form in 2011 with five top-10s, which include a victory at the WGC-CA Championship. He currently leads the Tour in the all-round-ranking and adjusted scoring average, so can be expected to improve on an already impressive Masters record which reads: seventh, ninth and eleventh in the past three years. I can remember him saying in an interview last year how much he loves Augusta and made a mental note to back him in 2011. I've seen nothing this season to persuade me otherwise.
Justin Rose @ 35/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
English players have a poor record in the Majors but Rose isn't scared of winning in the States, as he showed when winning back-to-back titles last season, and he is arguably a better player than when he finished fifth here in 2007. That wasn't the only time he has contended at Augusta as he has led after one, two and three rounds and, while some will question whether he's got the bottle to lead after four, he looks a lot mentally tougher this year. Certainly, there isn't much wrong with his current game as he's finished in the top-25 in seven of the eight events he's played in this season and is coming off a fine third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where his short game was immaculate. That will stand him in good stead this week and I think he's worth supporting to get his hands on that green jacket.
Bubba Watson @ 40/1 bet365
Short game skills probably outweigh the need to hammer the ball miles off the tee here but length is still undoubtedly an advantage and the American has that in spades - he ranks second on Tour in distance off the tee. However, there is more to this bomber than meets the eye as he also sits second in greens in regulation and currently leads the Tour in par-5 scoring average. Players need to go low on the four par-5s - Mickelson played them in 12 under last year - and Bubba's high ball flight will allow him to attack the flags and stop the ball quickly on the lightning-fast greens. Along with Watney, he's the most improved player on Tour in 2011, winning at Torrey Pines (set up like a Major) and he does have Augusta experience having finished 20th on his debut two years ago. I just hope his nerves hang out, unlike mine which will be in shreds by the end of the week.
Recommended Bets:-
Phil Mickelson 2pts @ 7/1 Ladbrokes
Nick Watney 2pts each-way @ 18/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Justin Rose 1pt each-way @ 35/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Bubba Watson 1pt each-way @ 40/1 bet365
