I can't help feeling a bit flat after yesterday's third round. What had looked set to be a cracking tight affair could well have turned into anything but. Rory McIlroy enters tonight's final round with a four-shot lead and it's his event to lose now but how did that happen? It looked so tight at halfway. A collective flop by the chasers and a decent third round from Rory is the answer. Remarkably, of his ten closest pursuers through 36 holes, only KJ Choi broke par! Woods, Ogilvy, Westwood and Fowler, to name but a few, all fluffed their lines last night and we have a very different leaderboard to ponder this morning.

Rory will partner 2009 champ Angel Cabrera and the stats tell us that one of them will win. 19 of the last 20 Masters winners have played in Sunday's final paring.

In the penultimate two-ball Choi will partner Charl Schwartzel (both tied for 2nd on -8) and before them we have the Aussie pair of Day (-8) and Adam Scott (-7) and England's Luke Donald (-7) will partner the best performing American, Bo Van Pelt (-6). Nobody else is within seven shots of McIlroy.

Normal logic would suggest that even if McIlroy flops nobody any further back can win, but this year just doesn't feel like a normal year and I wouldn't put anyone off having a speculative bet on someone a long way back. A strategy I would rarely advocate at Augusta.

McIlroy's class isn't in doubt and if he wins he'll be the 2nd youngest winner of all time. Woods was just a few months younger than Rory is now when he won in 1997 so he's in illustrious and select company indeed. He will also achieve the very rare feat of leading all the way. There's no doubting his performance to date, he's been just about flawless and he will win multiple majors, but given that he's trading at below 1.8 we have to ask whether he's quite ready for his first one just yet? I'm not convinced that he is and I think he's worth opposing.

Even though he's been helped considerably by his closest rivals, he's surprised me greatly so far. Rory's usually very shaky in contention and I've been expecting a collapse all week. Maybe we won't get one and part of me hopes we won't. If he does foul-up tonight it will take some getting over but I have to forget about how Rory will feel and concentrate on who can capitalise should there be a crash.

After three relaxed days playing with Jason Day, today will be a very different kettle of fish. I can't see Cabrera too willing to chat and Cordoba's finest is onside with me now. I took 17.0, at betfair, about the former champ last night, once I knew he'd be in the final pairing.

I already have Choi onside and if Rory flops I think he's the most likely to come through. He's playing great golf tee to green and I can see him nudging it round in one or two under again tonight and that may well be enough.

Day has to overcome his inexperience but I think he has more chance than his playing partner Scott and certainly no less of a chance than Donald or Schwartzel. But in all honesty, I'm not that keen on any of them. I can see this bunch of four doing what the closest halfway pursuers did and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see all of them shoot over par. And I can't have Bo Van Pelt on my mind either.

As I'm not keen on that lot, it doesn't make much sense to lay Rory. Instead I'm happy to have Choi, Cabrera and Ogilvy (currently on -5) onside, and I've also added Bubba Watson (also on -5) at a massive 120.0 this morning. He broke 70 for the first time in his career at Augusta with his impressive 67 yesterday and he's perfectly capable of going even lower.