This week's Open Championship from St George's is one of the most open renewals for years and it's pretty safe to say that just about any player could be lifting the Claret Jug on Sunday.
As you'd expect, there are plenty of tips flying around for the outright market but, with bookmakers doing all they can to attract your cash this week, it might pay to look elsewhere for some value:
Nicolas Colsaerts to finish in the top-10 @ 14/1 (Totesport)
The big-hitting Belgian looks to have slipped under the bookmaker's radar and current odds of 14/1 look massive for a player who is playing the golf of his life right now. An 11th place finish in Abu Dhabi back in January was a sign of things to come as he's since won a highly competitive China Open, finished third in the World Matchplay and most recently filled the same position in the Scottish Open. The last time an Open was played on a hard, fast-running course like Royal St George's - Hoylake in 2006 - the longer hitters had a big advantage and he could murder the par-5s this week, while a late tee time on Thursday could also be in his favour.
A hole in one @ 5/4 (William Hill)
That doesn't look a bad price at all as two of this week's par-3s, the sixth and 16th, measure only 178 and 163 yards respectively. OK, there was no aces the last time the Open was played here (so we're due one) but Jack Nicklaus, Roger Chapman, Gordon Brand Jr and, going even further back, Tony Jacklin have all tamed the 16th in competition here.
Lay Rory McIlroy for a place at around 3.5 (Betfair)
There will be plenty of punters willing to trust Rory with their hard-earned this week but will it be because they think he will win or because they want him to win - I suspect more of the latter. I'm not denying he's a fantastic talent and if he turns up in the same sort of form as he showed at Congressional, the others may as well go home now. However, his high ball flight will be less suited to Sandwich, especially if the wind gets up, as it's forecast to do on Thursday morning (he's due out at 9.09am), and a moderate start will see him having to play catch-up. That's never an easy thing in the Open and you also have to question his unorthodox preparation in deciding to take the last few weeks off. His natural ability could overcome all that, of course, but his focus might be lacking from the get-go.
Paul Lawrie to be Top Scotsman @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)
I made Lawrie one of my picks for last week's Scottish Open and, while he didn't land his backers any place money, he still played OK in finishing tied-25th on 11-under, which was a continuation of some some good form this season. If anything, last week's conditions were too benign and the forecast wind and rain (at the weekend especially) will bring out the best in this links specialist. Besides, Ladbrokes' 2/1 favourite Martin Laird has been out of form lately.
Thorbjorn Olesen to be Top Dane at 9/4 (Skybet)
Thorbjorn who? - you might well be saying. However, the young Dane has been cropping up on leaderboards all season and has finished runner-up three times already, most recently at the French Open a fortnight ago. That's better form figures than either Anders Hansen and Thomas Bjorn, who are both ahead of him in the betting, and if proof was needed that he can handle links conditions, you've only got to look at his opening 66 at last week's Scottish Open. In what is effectively a three-horse race (Lucas Bjerregaard makes up the field), he's top value at the 9/4 (11/10 elsewhere).
Jeff Overton to be Top American @ 25/1 (Betfred)
The Americans are not known for their love of links golf but that hasn't stopped them taking the Claret Jug back across the Atlantic on 11 occasions in the last 16 years, including the last time the Open was played here in 2003 (Ben Curtis). The big-hitting Yank wouldn't be such a shock winner after his feisty performance in the Ryder Cup at Celtic Manor and he's fared well in this event too, making the last two top-15s. I wouldn't put anyone off a dabble in the outright market but Top American each-way looks the safest bet.
A playoff at around 3.90 (Betfair)
Louis Oosthuizen trotted up by seven shots last year but Opens as a rule tend to be close affairs (seven of the last 16 have gone to extra holes) and that was certainly the case in 2003 when Curtis prevailed by a solitary stroke from Thomas Bjorn and Vijay Singh, with two other players just one shot further back.
Back the clubhouse leaders in-play
There's a lot to be said for waiting a round or two before getting involved financially and the best advice here is to concentrate on the clubhouse leaders. Unlike some Open venues, Royal St George's has proved to be a front-runner's course and even 500/1 winner Curtis was only a couple of shots back going into the final round. Before him, Greg Norman was more or less favourite throughout when lifting the Claret Jug in 1993, while Sandy Lyle (1985) was never more than a couple of shots back. So, while the temptation might be to back a big name lying four or five shots back, the best ploy might be to stick with those nearer the lead when betting in-play.
