Mercedes-Benz Championship: Villegas in the Driving Seat

The Mercedes-Benz Championship at Kapalua, Hawaii, is the traditional curtain-raiser for the American season and is open to last year’s tournament winners only, meaning there is a limited field of 33 (Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson and Padraig Harrington have opted to stay at home) and no halfway cut.

The Course: The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort (par-73, 7411 yards)
For the Plantation Course, think long and wide. At just over 7,400 yards, it is a long-hitter's paradise and they don’t have to worry about hitting it too straight as the fairways are so wide. The Kona trade is nearly always a factor here, while the very large Bermuda greens are grainy, fairly slow and tricky to read.

Ross’ Top Tip - Vijay Singh @ 11/2 Coral
The Fijian nearly always gives his backers a good run for their money here (five times in the pay-out places) and you can bet that, while others have been stuffing themselves with turkey over the holidays, he's been practising hard for one of his favourite events. After closing out 2008 with a win in the Chevron World Challenge, I reckon the 2007 Kapalua champion is ready to pick up where he left off.

Next Best - Camilo Villegas @ 12/1 Paddy Power
The Colombian owes bettingpro followers nothing after his wins in the final two Playoff events (the first at 33/1!) and he's very much one to follow again this season, especially on wide-open courses like this one. Outside the top 150 in driving accuarcy he may be, but he's one of the longest hitters on Tour and putts best on Bermuda greens, which are in use this week. True, he's never played a competitive round here but that didn't stop Sergio Garcia winning on his debut here in 2002.

Outsider: Parker McLachlin @ 80/1 Coral
Another playing this event for the first time but, having grown up in Hawaii, it's a safe bet that he's played this course a few times and won't mind playing in the wind. I see he was 10th in last year's Sony Open, played in Hawaii, so don't be surprised if he makes the frame this week at massive odds.

Tournament Lay: Ernie Els (11 on Betfair at the time of writing)
The Big Easy has a great record here but it's been a while since he tasted success (2003) and his price is surely based on reputation rather than recent form which hasn't been great by his standards.

Ross’ Match Bet - Camilo Villegas to beat Geoff Ogilvy @ 5/6 Skybet

In-Running Notes:
The key holes are likely to be the four par fives - the 5th, 9th, 15th and the monster 663-yard 18th, which provides a final hole birdie / eagle opportunity. The player who performs best on these holes over the four days is likely to be the winner.

Recommended Bets:
Vijay Singh 2pts win @ 11/2 Boylesports
Camilo Villegas 1pt each way @ 12/1 Paddy Power
Parker McLachlin 1pt each way 80/1 Coral

 

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Tags: Camilo Villegas,  Ernie Els,  Geoff Ogilvy,  Golf Betting,  Kapalua Resort,  Mercedes-Benz Championship,  Parker Mclachlin,  PGA Tour,  Vijay Singh