The US Tour moves on to California this week for the Humana Challenge, which used to be the Bob Hope Classic and has been reduced from five days to four and from four courses to three.
It's still a pro-am, though, meaning we will have to endure plenty of close-ups of so-called 'celebrities' hacking out from the rough, but it's a cracking field nonetheless and wide open too with the majority of bookmakers going 16/1 'the field'. Notables include Phil Mickelson, making his first start of 2012, Dustin Johnson, who is returning from close season knee surgery, and FedEx Cup champion Bill Haas. Outright favouritism, however, goes to Matt Kuchar, who was one of three runners-up here in 2010 and confirmed his liking for this particular challenge with a tied-7th last year. Last week's shock winner 125/1 Johnson Wagner (he of the 70s style moustache!) also goes to post and is a best-priced 80/1 with Totesport to follow-up.
This year's action is confined to the Nicklaus and Palmer courses at PGA West and La Quinta Country Club - the Palmer Course will be played twice including Sunday's round, when amateurs will be excluded, thankfully! All are par-72 resort courses and players will be going low - there have been four 61s and 14 62s in the last four years alone and it wouldn't be a massive surprise to see David Duval's 59, achieved here 11 years ago, repeated. Therefore, those players who are high up in the GIR and putting stats can be expected to dominate the leaderboard.
My Three Off The Tee:-
Kevin Na @ 55/1 bet365
Just about any player can win this week if their putter gets hot and that makes me inclined to overlook those players already mentioned, along with last week's pick Charles Howell III, who at least landed us some place money but seems to have forgotten how to win. Na, who was also burdened with my pick last week, fared less well, taking far too many putts (65 to be exact) over the course of his first two rounds before missing the cut. That surprised me as he can normally be relied upon with the flat stick (ranked 9th for Total Putting in 2011) and his game looked to be in tip top form the previous week at Kapalua, where he shot 65 in the final round to carry him up to fifth. On a course where he has shot 10 consecutive rounds in the 60s, carding top-10s the last two years, he's worth another chance at a price which looks like an overreaction to last week's performance.
Kyle Stanley @ 66/1 Paddy Power
I'm expecting this young American to kick on from what was a strong 2011 and I saw enough last week in Waialee (tied-23rd) to make me think he can put in a big bid for this title. His huge driving will always be an asset wherever he tees up but this course will showcase it better and his other skills match up well to this week's challenge - he ranked 30th on Tour in greens hit and sixth in total birdies. The closest he came to winning last season was when runner-up in the John Deere Classic - his 21-under total leaving him just one shot shy of winner Steve Stricker - so this week's potential birdie-fest will be right up his alley and I'm confident he can improve on last year's 29th place finish.
Jason Kokrak @ 200/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds, SIX places)
Jhonattan Vegas was fresh from the Nationwide Tour and making his course debut when winning this title 12 months ago, so the omens are good for Kokrak, who earned his PGA Tour card by winning twice on the Nationwide Tour and finishing fourth on the money list. He's a name we're sure to hear plenty more of in 2012 as he's a monster hitter (averaged 318 yards last season), but you don't win twice unless the rest of your game is up to scratch and his GIR stats (ranked 17th, hitting 72%) bear close inspection too. With the four rounds he played at Waialee clearing out the rust from his game, it's scary what he could do to these easy par-72s and the 200/1 on offer with Ladbrokes, who go a generous six places each-way, has to be worth a speculative wager.
Strangely, the magic sign are shortest at 12/1 on him to finish in the top-10, which only serves to highlight the value in Stan James' 25/1 quote - snap it up while it lasts!
It will take me a long while to get used to the new name for this event and it will always be the 'Hope' for me, so it seems appropriate to throw in some of the legendary comedian's golfing quips, starting with: "Golf is my profession. Show business is just to pay the green fees", and "I set out to play golf with the intention of shooting my age, but I shot my weight instead!". Of La Quinta, he said: "Players occasionally have to contend with these gusty desert winds. I hit a ball into the wind one day...but I shouldn't have watched it with my mouth open. I'm the only guy around here with an Adam's Apple marked Spalding Kro-Flite."
Recommended Bets:-
Kevin Na 1pt each-way @ 55/1 bet365
Kyle Stanley 1pt each-way @ 66/1 Paddy Power
Jason Kokrak 0.5pt each-way @ 200/1 Ladbrokes / Top 10 Finish 1pt @ 25/1 Stan James
