Rory McIlroy's victory in the Hong Kong Open means the Race to Dubai will go the wire at this week's Dubai World Championship, which is being staged at the Greg Norman-designed Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in UAE.
The Northern Irishman pocketed enough cash last week to put him within striking distance of the leader Luke Donald, although he still needs to win and hope that Donald finishes outside the top nine. That looks a tall order, though, as the Englishman has been a model of consistency all season and rarely finishes out of the frame, never mind top-10, while McIlroy lines up here far from 100 per cent, having failed to shake off a virus picked up on his golfing travels. A measure of his task can be gleaned from the fact that Donald is a general 1/20 chance to remain at the summit of the cash standings, with McIlroy biggest at 10/1 (Victor Chandler).
But that's enough of the Race to Dubai, it's time to concentrate on picking this week's winner and play up last week's winnings from Lee Westwood - hope you were on at 7/2! The Worksop wonder produced a masterclass of golf around the Gary Player Country Club and must have every chance of following up on this course, as it was here that he won the inaugural event two years ago (by six shots no less!) and he was just a shot out of the playoff between Ian Poulter and Robert Karlsson 12 months ago, when still recovering from a calf injury. With stats like that, it's hard to imagine him being out of the frame and, while the early 7/1 is history, I cannot let him go unbacked this week at the current 11/2 (Paddy Power).
At the prices, he makes far greater appeal than a sickly McIlroy, who is a 6/1 shot with Ladbrokes, and even Donald at 12/1 will not be attracting any of my money on account of his mediocre form here of 37th in 2009 and ninth last year. Instead, let's throw some Euros at Sergio Garcia now that he's winning tournaments again. It's been a long time coming I know but those two victories at the end of October and some fine performances in the last three Majors of the year have convinced me he's close to his prime, and I like the fact he was seventh here two years ago, when playing no where near as well as he is now. In his current form, he could easily improve on that and the 14/1 on offer at Ladbrokes looks a fair price.
Such is the quality of the field, it's hard to imagine the winner coming from too far down the betting list and I'm not going any further than Louis Oosthuizen for my third and final outright pick. The South African has been showing much of the form that won him the Open Championship last year, with five top-eight finishes in his last seven starts, and he too has shown a liking for desert golf, which includes two fine efforts here (12th and 13th). At 33/1 with bet365, he looks to have slipped under the betting radar.
Last but not least, I can't resist a speculative punt on Rafael Cabrera-Bello to finish in the top 10 at 12/1 (Ladbrokes). The Spaniard was a respectable 30th on his debut here in 2009 and he's improved enormously since then, with some of his best efforts this season coming in this part of the world: finished seventh in Abu Dhabi, third in Qatar and 20th in the Dubai Desert Classic in the space of four weeks at the start of the year. He had a summer to forget but recent efforts, which include a runner-up spot in Portugal and 15th last week in Hong Kong, suggest he's found his A game again and, while it's hard to see him winning (150/1 quotes are about right), I do think a top 10 finish in a limited field like this is achievable.
Recommended Bets:-
Lee Westwood 4pts @ 11/2 Paddy Power
Sergio Garcia 2pts @ 14/1 Ladbrokes
Louis Oosthuizen 1pt each-way @ 33/1 bet365
Rafael Cabrera-Bello Top 10 Finish 1pt @ 12/1 Ladbrokes
