The 2012 Race to Dubai gets under way with the €1-million Africa Open, which is again being played at the East London G.C.
As you'd expect, South Africans dominate the market and defending champion Louis Oosthuizen is a very warm favourite at 5/1 generally, with 2009 winner Retief Goosen next best at 12/1. Thomas Aiken, who broke his European Tour duck at the Spanish Open last April, is a 14/1 shot with Ladbrokes, who go the same price on his compatriot George Coetzee. The first non-South African in the betting is Chris Wood, who was beaten in a play-off (along with Manuel Quiros) 12 months ago and can be backed at 35/1 (Stan James).
East London, which is set on the coast amongst hills, dunes and indigenous bush, is relatively short at 6,770 yards and therefore distance off the tee is of no great advantage. Oosthuizen won with a 16-under total 12 months ago and, with a couple of the par-5s reachable in two and three of the par-4s driveable scoring should again be low, although a stiffish breeze might keep scores on the high side at the weekend.
My Three Off The Tee:-
Jbe Kruger @ 25/1 Betfred
At first glance, Oosthuizen looks in a different league to the majority of his rivals and if he can start this season like he did last - six top-eight finishes from October onwards - he has to go very close. However, I was on him for the Dubai World Championship and, while he played beautifully from tee to green to get into contention, he putted poorly and that was the story of last season really as he failed to average under 30 putts per round for the first time since joining the Tour. Granted, he's bound to have been working hard on that area of his game the break but there is enough doubt in my mind to stop me going in at just 5/1.
Goosen has not won an event of any nature for three years and, even if he does manage to get into contention, he can be relied upon to blow-out on Sunday. Aiken has bundles of talent but is erratic and hard to catch right, so let's take a chance instead on Kruger, who will surely win one of these events sooner rather than later. He's gone close several times, including when third here in 2010 and eighth last year, which would have been better but for a double-bogey on the 12th in the final round, and he showed he can get it done by winning twice on the Sunshine Tour. The 25-year-old was top-10 for greens in regulation on the latter so has the game to go low around here and that makes him a value bet at 25/1, especially when you consider he's as low as 16s in a place.
Branden Grace @ 40/1 Betfred
Other South Africans capable of going well are George Coetzee, Garth Mulroy and Hennie Otto but none are as attractively priced as Grace, and the 23-year-old could be the one to give Kruger most to do down the stretch. Like his compatriot, he has winning form on the Sunshine Tour and has shown a liking for East London, finishing second just a shot off Goosen in 2009 and eighth in both his subsequent attempts. Having finished ninth in the South Africa Open last November and then earning his card at the European Tour Qualifying School, he will be chomping at the bit to get his season under way in front of the home fans, and it would be no real surprise to see him convert that youthful enthusiasm into a win this week.
Sam Little @ 100/1 Ladbrokes
All credit to Ladbrokes for going one quarter the odds, six places this week (let's hope it starts a trend) and I can't resist a little of their 100/1 on the Englishman now that he's found some form, albeit at a lower level than this on the Challenge Tour. Still, three wins in the autumn of last year were enough to secure his Tour playing rights for this season and he followed that up with a solid 15th at the Alfred Dunhill Championship; not the first time he's played well in this part of the world. He's an unlikely winner, admittedly, but three-figure odds and that extra place make him irresistible each-way.
Recommended Bets:-
Jbe Kruger 2pts each-way @ 25/1 Betfred
Branden Grace 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Betfred
Sam Little 0.5pt each-way @ 100/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds, six places)
