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Three races into a new Formula One season, it's beginning to be apparent that a reliable guide to the climate is becoming important in picking a Grand Prix winner.

Ferrari's Fernando Alonso collected first place in Malaysia thanks to the rain. A week later in the dry and cloudy conditions of China his car was nowhere near quick enough. Mercedes, meanwhile, had their first chance to take advantage of their "F duct" technology on a completely dry track and cashed in (as you would have done if you followed last week's column that picked out the value in supporting Nico Rosberg and his team mate Michael Schumacher). Matched at prices of up to 80.0 at Betfair at one time to win the constructors' championship, the Silver Arrows are now down to 15.0.

This week? Well according to the latest charts Friday and Saturday will be sunny, dry and hot, and then race day will be cloudy and, wait for it, dry and hot. We're in the desert in Bahrain after all. So all we need to do is think about who will benefit most from a scorching Sunday afternoon with the thermometer climbing above 30 degrees.

Lewis Hamilton is 3.3 favourite to win the race in the early market - presumably because of the consistent start that has put him top of the standings. But as he pointed out himself: "Yes, I have been consistent - consistently third!"

So for all that McLaren's car has shown a lot of potential, I'm not sure there's too much value in backing Hamilton right now, especially as his "on the edge" aggressive way of driving puts more pressure on his tyres.

If anybody is going to benefit from the searing heat, it will be his team mate Jenson Button, who is a slightly better price at 3.7. On this track protecting the Pirelli tyres will be vital. We saw in the last few laps of Shanghai how, once they start to wear, the tyre degrading process gets quicker while the cars get slower. With the extra issues where the track, if you stray off line, can get dirty because of the sandy environment, Bahrain is a course to suit Button's smooth driving style.

"It is a massive thing for me," he's told everybody.

"I don't know why I can't work tyres in cold conditions, it must be the way I drive. The heat really helps me."

Curiously, Button is as long as 7.8 to take pole position, which looks like value at this stage. But then I'm also tempted by the two Mercedes cars who have been consistently quick in qualifying, yet the market still doesn't seem to have cottoned on. Rosberg and Schumacher were one and two on the grid in Shanghai, yet Rosberg is 5.4 to qualify fastest here and Schumacher a tasty 9.4. Those look good prices - as does 6.0 for Mercedes to provide the winning car. Get that right and the forecast really will be set fair!
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Bahrain Grand Prix Betting Tips

Three races into a new Formula One season, it's beginning to be apparent that a reliable guide to the climate is becoming important in picking a Grand Prix winner.

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