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Valencia v Atletico Madrid Tips – Madrid to book Europa League final spot

Atletico Madrid's Colombian forward Radamel Falcao celerates after scoring during the UEFA Europa League first leg semi-final football match Atletico Madrid vs Valencia at the Vicente Calderon stadium in Madrid on April 19, 2012. (credit: PIERRE-PHILIPPE MARCOU/AFP/Getty Images)
Valencia are being tipped to get the better of Atletico Madrid in tonight’s semi-final second leg, but it is the visitors who are expected to reach the Europa League final.

Betfair Match Odds: Valencia 1.96, Draw 3.9, Atletico 4.1

Valencia should be dead and buried in this tie, but in the first leg a goal from Ricardo Costa in the fourth minute of stoppage-time gave Los Che a lifeline, as they lost 4-2 instead of 4-1.

Atletico dominated the match, and the ever-dangerous Radamel Falcao scored twice to take his Europa League tally into double figures. Valencia's defending was feeble throughout, and only an excellent display from keeper Diego Alves kept Unai Emery's men in contention for a place in the final.

Valencia boosted their confidence by thrashing Real Betis 4-0 at the weekend, a result that took them closer to Champions League qualification.

Emery can motivate his troops by pointing them towards their excellent home form in the Europa League. They beat Stoke City 1-0 in the round-of-32, powered past PSV Eindhoven 4-2 in the round-of-16, and demolished a good AZ Alkmaar side 4-0 in the quarter-finals.

A 2-0 victory would be enough for Valencia to reach the final, but I can't see them keeping a clean sheet against an Atletico side that has put together a ten-match winning streak in this competition. Valencia will have to open the game up to get back into the tie, and I suspect that at some stage Atletico's firepower will see them grab what could prove to be a decisive away goal.

Valencia's resolve could crumble if the tie starts to slip away, and Atletico could punish them in the way they finished off Hannover in the quarters.

I think Valencia are a bit too short to win at 1.96, so I would lay the home side at 1.96, or back Atletico +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Eight of Valencia's last ten games have featured over 2.5 goals, which is true of six of their last seven matches at the Mestalla. Valencia have to go for it, so over 2.5 goals is the way to go at a stingy 1.65.

Valencia's speciality - the lightning-fast start

Valencia usually fly out of the blocks at home - they have opened the scoring in 13 of their 14 home games in 2012, and all of those goals have come before half-time. On that basis, I would back Valencia in the Half-Time market at 2.58.

Recommended Bets:

Back Atletico +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0
Best Bet: Back Valencia in the Half-Time market at 2.58

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Valencia v Atletico Madrid Tips – Madrid to book Europa League final spot

Valencia are being tipped to get the better of Atletico Madrid in tonight’s semi-final second leg, but it is the visitors who are expected to reach the Europa League final.

Read more »

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