History tells us Neil Warnock (QPR), Brendan Rodgers (Swansea) and Paul Lambert (Norwich) have a job on their hands to keep their newly promoted clubs in the top flight.
And early market trading patterns tell a similar story.
However, the side which comes out on top of their three-cornered contest will give themselves a huge chance of survival... think about it, the team that beats the other two newcomers will only need to finish higher than one other current Premier League side and they're guaranteed to stay up.
It's a season within a season, almost. A mini-title race which has all the importance to the trio involved as the title itself will surely go to the likes of Manchester United, City or Chelsea.
QPR, last season's Championship winners, head the
betfair market at 2.12. Norwich, runners-up, trade at 3.5. The play-off winners, Swansea 3.85 are the outsider of three.
And those placings in last season's successful promotion campaign are very significant.
Since 1986/87 there have been 24 seasons where these three types of team have been promoted to the top division - Championship winner and runner-up along with the play-off winner.
The statistics for the following season (in terms of who placed highest in the Premier League) show the Championship winner coming out best on 12 occasions. That's 50% or equivalent odds of 2.0.
The runners-up won the market 8 times. That's 33% or 3.00. And the play-off winner came out on top in only four out of 24 seasons. A mere 16%, or average odds of 6.00.
On that data, quite clearly, QPR are the bet. Norwich offer a hint of value whilst Swansea are being given an artificially short price.
However, whilst the conscientious form student will act on such information... those of an even more curious disposition will look a little deeper into the figures.
Distil those 24 seasons down to the last 12 campaigns and the figures offer a different interpretation.
Since the 1999/2000 season, the ratio is only 5/12 for the Championship winner prevailing in this market. Coincidentally it's the same, 5/12, for the runner-up. Just 2/12 for the play-off winner.
By this reckoning QPR should be 2.4. Norwich the same price. Swansea would be unchanged at 6.00.
Now this restricted study period isn't conveniently included just to provide a reason for backing Norwich over QPR (although it does of course suggest this). No, what it shows is that with any data-driven research, the amount of information used is crucial in determining the outcome.
What cut off point do you use? How far do you drill down? Something which you must always bear in mind with form study.
Anyway, what it introduces is enough doubt into the market to at least question QPR's clear favouritism.
Furthermore, two key reasons usually swing this market massively in favour of the Championship winning side.
(1) They are, by definition of their league position, the best side of the three teams and
(2) they have had the longest time to prepare for the demands of the Premier League.
Admittedly QPR were four points better than Norwich and 11 better than Swansea, but have they necessarily trained on? More to the point, how exactly have QPR prepared for the top flight with doubts surfacing over their ownership, manager and star player (Adel Taarabt). No such doubts for the other two clubs.
Fairly minimal transfer activity also for Rangers (and most of it only done recently). No such thing for the other two clubs.
They might also struggle as a London club with lots of local derbies and little 'intimidation factor' of a trip to the footballing outposts of Norwich and Swansea. Their players might be better known and more rigorously scouted. Warnock's style of play/management has been seen before at Sheffield United.
Not statistical arguments these... but certainly ones which back-up what the stats could be used to argue. Namely, QPR look opposable favourites.
The option, obviously, is to back one of Norwich or Swansea as an alternative. And the data, as well as the anecdotal evidence, would place Paul Lambert's side as the prime candidates to triumph and give themselves a real shot at Premier League survival.
For a three-horse race... this is a fascinating market!
Key Statistic
The last Championship winning side to top this market was Sunderland (2006/07)... the runners-up have won each of the last three years.
