The tournament favourites play in New Zealand a side who have never taken a point from this competition and are arguably the weakest team there.
New Zealand v Spain preview
New Zealand have never won a point at the Confederations Cup, and while this year may well be their best chance of breaking their duck, there are unlikely to be too many surprises in Rustenberg as the tournament gets underway.
Ricki Herbert's side are better than any team that the Oceania Cup winners have sent to a major tournament. Both coach and players have been used to a relatively high level of competition as the advent of the A-League in Australia has given players a chance for more regular competition, but the vast majority of the Kiwi team will never have come across any players who are as gifted as those in the Spanish squad.
New Zealand did lead three times against Italy in their final warm up match before succumbing 4-3, but, heartening though that result was, they are likely to be way out of their depth against a Spanish squad which is close to full strength. All of which means finding any value ahead of their opening Group A fixture is very tough.
When there's a chance that one team is better than the general perception gives them credit for, then the obvious thing to do is to look at supporting them on the Asian Handicap, but I'm struggling to advocate getting with New Zealand even with a 2.5 or 3.0 goal start, as a full strength Spain will be very different to a second string Italy.
It's also no surprise to see over 2.5 goals trading at [1.36 @ betfair ], as it's not in Herbert's nature to pack his defence and play for respectability: the likes of the Celtic striker Chris Killen and the A-League player of the year Shane Smeltz are both attacking threats, and the Kiwis are likely to try and show that they can play.
This will leave space, and anyone who has seen Spain in recent years will know that they thrive on being given room to play. The majority of the New Zealand squad come from the Wellington Phoenix and so the most reliable guide that we have to their likely style comes from Wellington's performances in the A-League.
They won only a third of their fixtures, and in ten games away from home, they conceded over 2 goals a game, which, even given the addition of Blackburn's Ryan Nelson to their side, means that they could be in real trouble against the likes of Torres, Villa, Fabregas and Iniesta.
It's worth taking a look at what kind of team Vicente Del Bosque picks, but even if he opts for a second string, the side will still ooze quality, and it may be a case of New Zealand struggling to keep the score down. Much though it's tempting to be counter-intuitive and predict a narrow New Zealand defeat here at relatively fancy prices, sometimes it pays to take advantage of what's staring you in the face.
Spain will be far too good, the Kiwis' style will play into their hands, and if you must have a bet, then the any unquoted score, which needs Spain to get four goals or more, is probably the way to go.
Betting recommendation
Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market in Spain v New Zealand at [2.18 / Betfair]
