England are flying high following the shock win over world champions Spain this past weekend, but Sweden are ready to bring the Three Lions back down to Earth on Tuesday night.
Before you all start getting carried away with England's 1-0 victory over Spain on Saturday night let me throw some incredible match stats at you.
Depending on which match report you read, the world and European champions enjoyed as much as 71% possession (compared to England's 29%); they had six corners to England's one, and almost unbelievably Spain fired in 22 goal attempts whilst the Three Lions' could muster just two shots on target and one off.
True, from Spain's 22 goal attempts only two were on target, and the most important statistic is the goals scored column; but on home soil, to concede that much possession and have so many shots at goal against you is extremely worrying. Quite frankly Spain are in a different league to England technically, and but for overplaying it at times they could easily have ran out comfortable winners on the night.
Fabio Capello's men now turn their attention to Sweden, a nation that England has an appalling record against in recent history. It has been more than 40 years, spanning 12 games (seven competitive, five friendly) since England beat Sweden, and the last three encounters on English soil have each ended all-square.
Capello is expected to field another 'experimental' side, though John Terry will return as captain despite ongoing FA and police investigations into an alleged racial abuse incident. Bolton defender Gary Cahill is expected to line-up alongside Terry, whilst in attack Chelsea forward Daniel Sturridge is being hotly tipped to win his first cap and partner Fulham's Bobby Zamora. Jack Rodwell and Kyle Walker may also be given their first England starts.
Match Odds
Despite a victory over the world's best national side at the weekend, England simply have to be a lay at 1.8 in this market. Sweden have always regarded a victory over the Three Lions as a huge scalp, and because so, they field a strong side whenever the two sides meet in a friendly international and generally play to the best of their ability.
Whilst Capello will field a much-changed side to the one that started against Spain at the weekend (and arguably a weaker one), Sweden boss Erik Hamren is expected to go with his strongest side possible which could include the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, former Bolton striker Johan Elmander, and Sunderland midfielder Sebastian Larsson. The Swedes lost 2-0 to Denmark on Saturday and they'll be keen to put that result behind them as soon as possible.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals / Both teams to Score
The fact that Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at just 1.84 is perhaps an overreaction to England's solid defensive display against Spain on Saturday. It's worth pointing out then that only Ashley Cole might survive from that defensive line-up (and the Spanish got behind him more than anyone else), whilst Rodwell might be employed to do the job Scott Parker did should the Tottenham midfielder be rested.
So with possibly four of England's key personnel from the Spanish game being changed I don't for one minute envisage England defending as well as they did at the weekend. They might not need to of course, but they certainly won't take to the field with the mentality that they will be called upon to defend as much as they did against Spain, and that could be their undoing. In comparison to the Spanish tiki-taka style of play, Sweden will be far more direct and I fancy them to get on the score sheet at least once.
For all these reasons then I favour Over 2.5 Goals massively at 2.14, and rate the Yes option at 2.0 in the Both teams to Score market an excellent wager also.
Correct Score
I'm happy to go with the wagers already advised above, but England games are hugely popular amongst the minimum-medium stake punters out there and therefore they love nothing more than a punt at decent odds in this market. The last two encounters between these two on home soil have ended 1-1, and that scoreline is available to back at 7.8, but as I fancy goals I am more than tempted to have a small wager on the 2-2 outcome - available to back at 20.0.
