Chelsea must beat Valencia tonight to book their place in the knockout stage of the Champions League, and the Blues’ record at Stamford Bridge suggests they can get the job done.
Chelsea
The Blues have made the knockout stages of the Champions League eight years in a row. Their place in this season's last 16 is in doubt, however. A defeat or a scoring draw at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night would eliminate them.
Andre Villas-Boas' men were impressive in beating Newcastle 3-0 at the weekend. In particular, Didier Drogba might now keep Fernando Torres out of the starting lineup for this game. Juan Mata is very much more likely to start against his countrymen. Villas-Boas' only injury problem is the usual one - Michael Essien.
Valencia
Ever Banega, Valencia's highly skilled passing midfielder, is injured. Tino Costa is an able deputy, but the Argentinean will be missed. Victor Ruiz, the centreback, is Unai Emery's other injury doubt.
The coach rested star striker Roberto Soldado, who Opta reports has the best goals-to-minutes ratio in this season's competition, and attacking midfielder Jonas during the weekend's win over Espanyol, so they at least should be raring to go.
Match Odds
On English soil, Valencia are draw specialists (W1-D9-L4). A goalless stalemate would not be good enough for Emery's team, but a scoring draw is perhaps their most realistic target.
Chelsea have scored seven unanswered goals in the Champions League at Stamford Bridge this season. Genk, of course, are not in Valencia's class, but the Blues are W10-D1-L0 at home in the group stages since the Spaniards' last trip in 2007, when they left with a goalless draw.
Chelsea had already qualified for the knockout stages at the time of that game - and that was also the case in the only subsequent game they've failed to win (a 2-2 draw with APOEL Nicosia in 2009.
With such a strong record of winning when they need to, the Blues are the pick at 1.79.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Seven of Chelsea's last 11 group-stage home games have produced at least three goals. Over 2.5 Goals is slightly favoured at 1.94, but should it be more fancied?
Both teams need a result. Valencia need to score. Chelsea might stroll to victory if Villas-Boas attacks as usual; they will be on a tightrope if he plays for a goalless draw against a team that has scored 11 times in their last three matches.
Match Odds: Chelsea 1.79, Valencia 5.3, draw 3.9
