Chelsea v Liverpool tips – Lee Dixon verdict

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by Bettingpro Staff

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Chelsea Manager Andre Villas Boas gestures during the UEFA Champions League Group E match between KRC Genk and Chelsea at the KRC Genk Arena on November 1, 2011 in Genk, Belgium. (credit: Jamie McDonald/Getty Images)

Chelsea’s off-field problems will have a negative effect on Sunday’s clash with Liverpool, according to Lee Dixon.

Match Odds

An intriguing match between two sides who will be somewhat disappointed with their current league position. Chelsea were second-favourites at the start of the campaign and find themselves a huge nine points off the pace set by Manchester City whilst Liverpool, tipped by many including myself to finish in the Top Four, are down in sixth. Of course it's early days and both may yet achieve their pre-season goals but the worrying aspect for both managers is that they're not actually playing that well. Or at the very least, they are not performing consistently.

Chelsea are at home and that means there is more pressure on them to make something of this game. Not to mention actually winning it of course. These have been a very tough few weeks for Andre Villas-Boas, for one reason or another. That 1-0 defeat at QPR, a 5-3 loss at home to Arsenal, that missed David Luiz penalty at Genk that cost them the win. And that's without mentioning the manager's own improper conduct charge and the ongoing John Terry investigation. Villas-Boas is looking a little edgy at the moment and that's not the best state of mind in which to lead his team into a big match such as this.

Chelsea's defence has looked shaky of late and there are concerns that playing against raw pace makes them vulnerable. Luis Suarez is just the sort of man to make the most of those deficiencies. The Uruguyan is about to face charges of his own of course but his altercation with Patrice Evra has been hanging over his head for a month now and, if anything, his form has actually improved during this period. He could be Liverpool's key man.

A case could be made for a lay of Chelsea at 1.88 because a Liverpool win certainly isn't out of the question. But a back of the draw at 3.7 offers better returns and is the likelier result anyway so, that's where my money is going.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I've said Chelsea's defence looks suspect but then again, Suarez aside, no-one has looked particularly dangerous for Liverpool of late.

A quick look at the Opta stats for past encounters between these two suggests that goals aren't to be expected. There have been just nine scored in the last eight Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool at Stamford Bridge and somewhat more surprisingly, Chelsea have failed to score in five of their last seven Premier League games against Liverpool. It makes sense to go with another low-scoring affair so under 2.5 goals is the bet at 2.02.

Bookings Odds

Their manager has got himself into trouble with the FA and their captain Terry may be joining him. But the Chelsea players have been getting themselves into a spot of bother with referees, too. Chelsea have picked up more cards than any other team in the Premier League this season, 28 yellow and three reds.

This will already be a heated match because of what's at stake and all these off-the-pitch incidents will only contribute to making it an even tenser affair. Expect the cards to come out so back nine points and above in the bookings odds market.

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