Brighton face Liverpool on Wednesday night and it could be more profitable to back goals than either team
It's been almost 30 years since Brighton met Liverpool on a regular basis but back then the Seagulls were a bit of a cup bogey team for the Reds.
Brighton - and their famous long-bearded, head-banded Steve Foster et al - dumped Liverpool out of the FA Cup in consecutive seasons in the early eighties before holding their more illustrious opponents to a draw at Anfield in their very next FA Cup meeting in 1991. Two decades have passed since the clubs last met but don't expect much to have changed on the field with Brighton being more than capable of causing another cup upset here.
Despite losing to Leicester at the weekend Gus Poyet's men go into this tie in fine form, making an impressive start to their Championship campaign and remaining unbeaten in five games at their new Falmer Stadium. Defender Marcos Painter is suspended for the tie after seeing red at the weekend, though former Spanish international winger Vicente Rodriguez could be in line to make his debut for the south coast club.
Liverpool's form is not as bad as it looks on paper. They were extremely unfortunate in their defeat to Stoke 10 days ago, whilst being reduced to 10 men (although 1-0 down at the time) early on didn't do their cause any good during Sunday's 4-0 hammering at Tottenham; the last three goals being conceded with just nine men on the pitch.
Kenny Dalglish will field a strong side on Wednesday night with club captain Steven Gerrard set to return from a six-month spell on the sidelines. Craig Bellamy, Dirk Kuyt, Andy Carroll, Sebastian Coates and Maxi Rodriguez should all figure at some point along with promising youngsters Jay Spearing, Jon Flanagan, and Jack Robinson.
Match Odds: Brighton 5.5 v Liverpool 1.74; The Draw 4.0
With Dalglish seeing the Carling Cup as a winnable competition this season (remember, Liverpool have no European commitments) there's every reason to expect a strong starting XI against Poyet's hard-working Brighton side. Odds of 1.74 are perfectly fair for an away victory but I'm prepared to wait for the game to start, hope the Seagulls start on the front foot in front a packed home crowd, and then hope to get matched In-Play at 2.0 for a Liverpool victory.
If Brighton score early then the In-Play odds about a Liverpool victory will be even better, but as the game goes on I can see only one team winning... and it's not the home side.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Both teams to Score
At 1.76 to back I really fancy Over 2.5 Goals to be a winning wager here. As the Opta stats show Brighton have scored in all five of their home games this term (including against Premier League outfit Sunderland) and they'll have every chance of netting here against a Liverpool side that will be without the suspended Martin Skrtel in a defence that is likely to include a few youngsters.
And with the quality in the Reds' attack - and with plenty of strength on the bench should it be needed - I fully expect Liverpool to outscore their opponents. In fact, at a similar price (1.75) the Yes option in the Both teams to Score market is an equally appealing wager.
First Goalscorer
He may have featured in all six of Liverpool's games this season but Andy Carroll has started in only 50% of those games, scoring just the one goal (against Exeter in the previous round of this competition). If given the nod here the £35m striker will be desperate to impress and hold down a regular place in Dalglish's starting line-up. The Englishman is available to back at 6.0 to score first and is worth a wager, whilst a saver should be had on Brighton striker Craig Mackail-Smith (10.0) in the event that the hosts score first.
Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.76
Back Both teams to Score @ 1.75
Back Andy Carroll @ 6.0 and Craig Mackail-Smith @ 10.0 to score first
