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Italy v Germany tips - The 5 best bets

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German midfielder Sami Khedira (R) fights with German midfielder Mesut Oezil during a training session near the Dwor Oliwski hotel in Gdansk on June 25, 2012, during the Euro 2012 football championships. Germany will face Italy on June 28, 2012 for their Euro 2012 semi-final match. (credit: PATRIK STOLLARZ/AFP/Getty Images)
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Germany are the hot favourites to beat Italy in the Euro 2012 semi finals but there are plenty of other bets than simply lumping on Joachim Low's side to win on Thursday evening. Here are our top five:

1. Germany to beat Italy @19/20 Bet Victor

Italy may have snuck past England in the quarter finals but this is as far as they're going to go at Euro 2012. Andrea Pirlo was wonderful to watch against the Three Lions but he was helped by being given the freedom of Kiev by Steven Gerrard and Scott Parker. There is no chance that Sami Khedira and Bastian Schweinsteiger will do the same and it is likely that, rather than orchestrating attacks, Pirlo will spend much of his time chasing the ball, which is a role he won't relish. That will make it advantage Germany and the strike force of Mesut Ozil, Lukas Podolski, Thomas Muller and Mario Gomez won't be as wasteful as Mario Balotelli was on Sunday night.

2. Mario Gomez to score first @5/1 Paddy Power

Gomez was benched for the quarter final against Greece but he will start for Germany against Italy on Thursday and will be the focal point of his side's attack. The Bayern Munich striker showed his class with Germany's only goal of the game against Portugal and then added two against Denmark. It would be a surprise if he didn't get on the scoresheet against Italy and since Paddy Power are refunding bets if Gomez scores last then it makes sense to back him to net the opener, at a fairly decent price.

3. Daniele De Rossi to be shown a card @2/1 Sporting Bet

Italy manager Cesare Prandelli has been innovative with his use of Daniele De Rossi during Euro 2012 with the Roma midfielder being employed as a sweeper in some key matches. This is set to continue against Germany and that means that De Rossi will have to both keep an eye on Gomez's aerial threat and also try to track the tricky Mesut Ozil. Neither of these are roles that the 28-year-old will enjoy and it would be no surprise if he resorts to some more 'industrial' modes of defence on Thursday. Look for shirt tugs and professional fouls on the Germany forwards and that should catch the attention of referee Stephane Lannoy.

4. Over 4.5 Cards @Evens bet365

Lannoy is not a particular tolerant referee and, as well as De Rossi, he could be flashing cards at several players on Thursday night. He was in charge of Germany's group match with Portugal and gave out four yellows while he booked six when officiating Czech Republic v Greece. Both Germany and Italy have a number of players that are no strangers to referees' notebooks and it would be a surprise if this was a cleanly fought contest. Italy v Spain, which is a comparable match, had six cards and with red counting double there is plenty of scope for over 4.5 cards.

5. Mesut Ozil to be Man of the Match @4/1 bet365

This is one of the bets of the night on Thursday and arguably one of the best bets of the tournament so far. Mesut Ozil has strong claims to be named Player of the Tournament, at odds of 13/2 with Bwin, but before that we're backing him to be named Man of the Match for the third time during Euro 2012 on Thursday night. 

There aren't very many contenders for the award with Gomez, Podolski, Muller and possibly Schweinsteiger the only players from Germany likely to be in contention and the likes of Balotelli, Pirlo and Cassano the potential Italian match winners. If we assume that Germany win then we rule out the Italians and and Ozil, who is the one player that plays with craft and guile in the German squad, has to be a stand-out favourite. He is the shortest priced amongst the candidates but he should be closer to evens than 4/1.


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Italy v Germany tips - The 5 best bets

Germany are the hot favourites to beat Italy in the Euro 2012 semi finals but there are plenty of other bets than simply lumping on Joachim Low's side to win on Thursday evening. Here are our top five:

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