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Euro 2012 Final tips - The 5 best bets on Spain v Italy

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Spanish midfielder Andres Iniesta (C) shoots past Portuguese goalkeeper Rui Patricio during the Euro 2012 football championships semi-final match Portugal vs Spain on June 27, 2012 at the Donbass Arena in Donetsk. (credit: Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP/Getty Images)
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Spain can become the first country to win back-to-back European Championships when they take on Italy in Sunday's Euro 2012 final.

Many people expected a Spain v Germany final at Euro 2012 but Mario Balotelli's masterclass in the semi final saw Italy beat the Germans and set up a mouth-watering match with the reigning champions on Sunday. The Azzurri are the underdogs but there is a growing belief that Cesare Prandelli's side may be able to spring an upset. 

We're not so sure about that and will be backing Spain to win Euro 2012 but that is just one of a number of bets that hold value in Sunday's final. Here are the top five:

1. Spain to beat Italy in 90-minutes @5/4 Sky Bet

The swell of public opinion against Spain has done nothing to make me believe that they won't come out on Sunday and dominate the match. Andrea Pirlo may well win Player of the Tournament but he is potentially up against six equally good, if not better, midfielders in Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Sergio Busquets, Cesc Fabregas, Andres Iniesta and David Silva. Spain will dominate possession and they will create more chances. They probably only need to score once and they will create enough chances to do so. Even if things aren't going well then Fernando Torres and Jesus Navas have proved this summer that they can change games from the substitutes bench. Spain were around 8/13 to beat Italy in the group stage, they didn't but they didn't have to. They should be a similar price in the final and the higher odds make them irresistible.

2. Spain to win 1-0 @9/2 Paddy Power

Spain have kept clean sheets in four of their five matches at Euro 2012 and there is no reason to suggest that won't continue on Sunday. Yes, Italy scored against them in the group stage but that was very much against the run of play in an unusually open match. Italy couldn't break down England in the quarter finals when they had a lot of the ball and they won't see it enough in Kiev to really create many chances. The one caveat is that Mario Balotelli has the potential to score a goal out of nothing and that's why we're betting with Paddy Power who are refunding losing bets if the Manchester City striker scores the last goal of the game.

3. Xabi Alonso to be shown a yellow card @9/4 Paddy Power

Back to Paddy Power again for a bet that looks to be significantly over-priced. Xabi Alonso is arguably the best passer in the world but he is a poor tackler. He is also a player who regularly commits 'professional' fouls and won't worry about pulling a player back if he is out of position. This has seen him pick up two yellow cards already at Euro 2012 and he has to be considered one of the favourites to be booked on Sunday. Referee Pedro Proenca isn't shy at dishing out cards so don't be surprised to see Alonso being one of a few names in the Portuguese's book.
 
4. Cesc Fabregas to score the first goal @7/1 Ladbrokes

Cesc Fabregas has only started two matches for Spain but he has scored two goals and also netted the crucial penalty in their spot kick win over Portugal. He is quickly becoming La Furia Roja's key man in crunch situations and it doesn't get more crunch than the Euro 2012 final. The Barcelona midfielder will play as a striker on Sunday and he will be the man expected to get on the end of through balls from Andres Iniesta and David Silva. He scored against Italy in the group stage and will fancy his chances of doing so again when it matters even more. Ladbrokes are refunding losing bets if Mario Balotelli scores at any time so there is an insurance if things don't go as planned.

5. Andres Iniesta to be name Man of the Match @5/1 Betfred

We backed Iniesta to be Man of the Match against Portugal but that award went to Sergio Ramos (in part for his cheeky penalty we suspect) although we're happy to go in on the Barcelona man again on Sunday. Iniesta has been a stand-out performer at Euro 2012 with his close control and dribbling skills lighting up Spain's matches. Xavi, Busquets and Alonso keep the ball moving quickly but Iniesta draws players in then ghosts past them, creating space for his team mates. If Spain are to win, he'll be the key man.





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Euro 2012 Final tips - The 5 best bets on Spain v Italy

Spain can become the first country to win back-to-back European Championships when they take on Italy in Sunday's Euro 2012 final.

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