Here is why...

Well, actually, the opposite is true given that he hails from the Isle of Man, but that's far from a good omen when it comes to the Sports Personality of the Year, because recent history suggests that you need a large amount of local support to take the trophy. His island, however, has a population of just 84,655. The last four winners - Joe Calzaghe, Sir Chris Hoy, Ryan Giggs and Tony McCoy - have all been propelled to victory by sizeable backing from either Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland, with Zara Phillips in 2006 the last person to triumph from outside one of those countries.

If Cavendish earns the prize aged 26, he will be the youngest recipient since a 24-year-old Jonny Wilkinson was recognised in 2003. The circumstances then were rather unique, with the rugby union star scoring the drop goal that handed England the World Cup, and briefly made the sport the most talked about in the country. The last four winners have all been in their 30s, and for Calzaghe, Giggs and McCoy, it could be viewed almost as a lifetime achievement honour for a respected sportsman who has always excelled, without previously experiencing the individual glory that seemed deserved.

Of this year's candidates, 7.4 second favourite Darren Clarke best fits the billing above. He is hugely popular among golf fans and clearly has a big enough fanbase to make an impact having finished second in 2006. Clarke is more worthy of top spot on this occasion after his spectacular Open success and meets all the criteria generally required to be a winner these days: he's Northern Irish, at 43 it could be his last shot at the trophy and his standing in the market sees him rated a serious contender without being so fancied that potential voters feel there's no need for them to vote, as they might with a red hot favourite.

Though there is no doubt that the popularity and quality of British cycling is on the rise, there have still only ever been two cyclists ever crowned Sports Personality of the Year (Tom Simpson in '65 and Chris Hoy in 2008). Indeed, Hoy was the only cyclist to have made the top three since Beryl Burton in 1967, and he could hardly be ignored after claiming three Olympic gold medals. Cavendish was shortlisted in 2010 after an impressive campaign but failed to finish in the podium positions despite it being far from the strongest line-up ever, hinting that his best chance of lifting the BBC's silverware will be after a star turn at the Olympics.

Backing the favourite has rarely proven a profitable strategy in this market, with Tony McCoy's 2010 success the exception rather than the norm. The legendary jumps jockey wasn't as clear a frontrunner as Cavendish is this time and several other high-profile icons who have been overlooked in the past were. Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button and Rebecca Adlington have all been left disappointed after being widely tipped in recent years and there have been several massive shocks, like Calzaghe elbowing his way into what was thought a two-way fight between Hamilton and Ricky Hatton in 2007, and Hoy doing the same to Hamilton and Adlington 12 months later. Giggs meanwhile was at one staged backed at 1000.0 when he prevailed in 2009, indicating that you mustn't be scared off by the size of the odds.