If he wins Wimbledon, Andy Murray will probably cake walk the public vote and he's sure to plummet from the current 7.2 price so maybe that's the oddsmakers' rationale. It is, however, a fairly big if in my book. He's inching closer to that being that first UK man for a generation to win a tennis slam but arguably he's actually no closer now than he was two years ago. There's still clear water between him and the top three players and I don't think many tennis gurus would argue that even at the top of his game, Murray only has some of the attributes of champion's tennis about him. Not the sort of rounded player that dominates his era for me. Not got the champion mentality.

Sure, he could win Wimbledon but like Virginia Wade, I figure only if things go his way and conspire to get the better players beat or AWOL. More chance he could win Flushing Meadows on the hard court but the same applies there for me also. As proved in Melbourne in January, always one comes up to thwart him. Sorry Andy!

That makes him a lay in my book (especially as you can get bigger than 7.2 at Betfair (all odds Betfair) for him to win the actual tennis tournaments!) and with other short pricers David Haye 7.6 and Jessica Ennis 9.6 also unlikely overall winners with no great chance to up their current status this year (Ennis has to be a better bet for 2012 surely), it's a market in which to look for a possible outsider - even at this early stage.

Before I address that, a quick question. Are you having a laugh guys putting Rory McIlroy in at 14.5 fourth favourite? What's he expected to win it with, the sympathy vote? I'm sorry but the young Ulsterman joined that special club at Augusta that has a lot of members but only one of whom (the inimitable Greg Norman) ever actually recovered to win anything. McIlroy's Marty Feldman impersonation on the Augusta greens rivalled Jean Van der Velde's effort in The Open and enters the top three last round cock ups of all time.

Two things are required to make it as a top golfer. Tee to green is a given for all the pros these days. But ability to hold the nerve when the moment comes and ability to sink the putts. That makes the champion. McIlroy failed at both. Contrast that with Charl Schwartzel's four final one putt greens at Augusta. Granted, McIlroy is young enough to recover but don't underestimate the cataclysmic scarring of a wilt like that when the Chris Evanses of this world are busy organising premature street parties. If Rory makes SPOTY, I'll eat my hat.

Four lays at the top of the market!

Identifying the outsider to take advantage isn't easy but worth keeping an eye on in the months ahead. I've put a line through last year's surprise package Phil Taylor at 65.0. Failure to defend his world title in January counterbalances the undoubted popular movement that got behind his vote last year. Mark Cavendish at 38.0 is a possible again but hampered by his sport and they tell me 'Swallow Dive' Ashton at 36.0 has a media friendly profile but surely his sport also acts as an albatross for the individual medal. Can't have Paul 'Red card' Scholes at 75.0 either but there are I do want to keep pm side by pressing the back button.

First up is Ian Poulter at 110.0 given he's only 48.0 to win the Open and that is my price for his chance in SPOTY too. Secondly, David Beckham at 80.0, just in case he does anything at all of sporting merit this year. (that standing ovation cannot be ignored).

Next up is Sam Waley-Cohen at 42.0. The horse world proved they can mobilise with Tony McCoy's win last year and this guy won the Gold Cup and got second in the National without getting paid for either!! The BBC and the British love their amateurs!

And finally Laura Robson at 120.0. It's probably early days for Robson just yet but I personally rate her chance over Murray's to become the next UK winner of a tennis Slam!