The 2011 Mercury Music Prize ceremony takes place on Tuesday night and PJ Harvey’s Let England Shake is the front runner in the betting
In terms of album sales and making it in America, 2011 is Adele's year. But could she scoop the Mercury Music Prize? At 9.4, she's only fourth favourite but the Mercury aficionados I've been canvassing reckon this could be the year that the mainstream nominee triumphs.
The problem with having Adele on the Mercury list is the same as the problem with having Beyonce at Glastonbury: their music aspires to be the only music. Also, it's not very good. A terrific voice means nothing when the songs are as dull and insipid as these.
Some songs on PJ Harvey's 2.98 Let England Shake are amongst the best she's written. LES is not perfect - it fizzles out - but it would be a worthy winner. However, although Harvey won in 2001, she missed out three years ago when she was favourite with A Woman A Man Walked By. After the XX won last year, I can't see the market jolly coming home in 2011 and her staid live performance - one of contemporary rock's great anomalies - could put judges off on the night.
James Blake 8.4 has attracted plenty of interest and is, along with Anna Calvi, a candidate with momentum. Of the two, I fancy his chances more but four out of the last five winners have been debutants so both are worth a few quid. Metronomy 10.0, Everything Everything 14.0, Katy B 28.0 and Ghost Poet 15.0 are our other debutants; of that group, I'd take an interest in Everything Everything. At 44.0, Gwilym Simcock stands no chance and neither does Tinie Tempah 75.0.
Elbow were the exceptions to the debutant trend, winning with their fourth in 2008. With Build A Rocket, Boys!, the weakest of their five albums, they have descended into the ruddy-cheeked mum's favouritism their proggier moments previously saved them from. I agree with the market that a repeat triumph is unlikely at 60.0.
My favourite album on the list is King Creosote and Jon Hopkins' Diamond Mine. When it was nominated, I assumed it couldn't win but now I'm not so sure. It's short but its emotional, tonal scope is broad, deep and haunting. Check out the awesome live performance on the 6music website and you'll see that they will have no problem demonstrating their album's subtle qualities when they play live. Diamond Mine is proving to be one of the year's steadier successes, a smouldering, beautifully hewn work that is winning popular support and taking its creators to increasing audiences.
Consider demand for their upcoming live dates. Last year, I was amongst a crowd of under 100, watching King Creosote perform in a tiny venue in Hay-On-Wye; this Friday, I'll be at he and Jon Hopkins' sold out Queen Elizabeth Hall show. It will be a night to celebrate a career highlight from one of our most likeable, prolific artists but could it also be a chance to toast the 2011 Mercury Prize winner? At 11.5, I'm putting my money where my heart is.
