Andy Schleck is determined to get the better of Alberto Contador at the 2011 Tour de France, but all his efforts are likely to be in vain.
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Last year he matched Contador in almost every department (pun intended); and if it hadn't been for his chain slipping on the climb to Port de Balès, then who knows, perhaps it would have been he, and not the all-conquering Spaniard, who would have stood atop the winner's podium on the Champs-Élysées?
And this year Schleck has strengthened his hand. The new Leopard-Trek squad has been designed around putting their man front-and-centre in the Tour. His brother Frank has been drafted in to provide support in the mountains, and prologue supremo Fabian Cancellara will be able to give just about the best advice available on how to ride time trials - Schleck's historical weakness - as well as bolstering the squad's chances in the team time trial on day two.
What's more, we hear that Schleck has prepared meticulously for this year's renewal - hitting the gym and spending more time on his trial bike in a desperate attempt to increase his power output and give him a shot of matching Contador against the clock. At only 25 years old he could be expected to improve with each passing year so, yes, whichever way you look at it, there's an almost incontrovertible thread of logic that leads us to lumping on Schleck at 3.35.
So what's stopping us? I don't know. I just can't get last year's pivotal stage out of my mind, when Contador stuck on Schleck's wheel all the way up the Tourmalet with the Luxembourg cyclist unable to drop him. Don't get me wrong, I think Schleck is a phenomenal cyclist; it's just that Contador - for all his problems off the bike - is a little bit more phenomenal in every department (pun still intended). Which leaves me wondering - where exactly is Schleck going to take time out of the Spaniard?
Maybe the answer to that lies in Contador's brushes with authority. In August, he will learn whether the Court of Arbitration for Sport will strip him of his 2010 Tour victory - and any race victories notched up in the meantime - for failing a drugs' test in last year's race. Perhaps the media scrutiny and pressure surrounding Contador will prove all too much; perhaps he'll crack under the weight of it all. Well maybe, but then he was under all the same pressures when imperious in this year's Giro, thought by many to be the most arduous Grand Tour Italy has ever staged.
Before last year's Tour, Contador was available at 1.58, and his price only got shorter. This year, in just as strong a position, the 1.90 looks incredible value.
Outside of the top two in the betting, things look fairly barren. With the possible exception of Bradley Wiggins (44.0) that is. Announcing his climbing ability with a startling debut in the 2009 Tour, last year was a disaster for Wiggins: he seemed to struggle in the heat and looked out of his depth. I'm willing to give him another go though. He raced superbly well when winning the Dauphine, and his Sky squad should be able to keep him in the hunt in the team time trial.
In the Points Classification, Mark Cavendish (2.50) will be popular, but it is his stated strategy again this year to only go for outright stage wins, rather than fighting for the intermediate points. With around half-a-dozen suitable finishes, Cavendish may well notch up another impressive haul of stage victories, but at the prices, Thor Hushovd (9.2) looks much better value. The Norwegian might also be a good bet to take the opening stage - the uphill finish will disadvantage the outright sprinters, whilst playing to all of Hushovd's strengths.
Recommendations
Back Contador in Winner market at 1.9
Back Wiggins in Top 3 market at 7.0
Back Wiggins in Top 6 market at 2.90
Back Hushovd in Points Classification market at 9.2
