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Tour de France 2011 – Stage 4 betting tips

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The Tour de France 2011 continues today and Phillipe Gilbert is strong favourite to claim victory on this latest leg of the Tour

Tyler Farrar joined Thomas Jefferson and Will Smith as an all-American Independence Day hero yesterday, winning his first-ever stage of the Tour de France. This column's pick, Mark Cavendish, finished fifth. The HTC train wasn't running on schedule when the Manxman got tangled up with another rider in the last kilometre.

An intriguing thing: Cavendish won the intermediate bunch sprint (he was later disqualified for a minor incident with Thor Hushovd). It was only the third time he had picked up points at an intermediate sprint since the start of the 2009 Tour. Why did he bother? And why especially did he bother when the top five places had already gone to some breakaway riders?

Cavendish has always said he would not sacrifice stage wins in pursuit of an overall points victory and a green jersey. Overconfidence? Or just confidence? Whichever it was, now that his pre-eminence is being questioned, he will redouble his effort - remember the tears in Montargis last year - for a probable sprint finish in Cap Frehel on Wednesday. Yesterday's result is not a reflection of form and - the cloud's gold lining - we might get an odds-against price about him next time.

Philippe Gilbert won his first Tour de France stage on Saturday and, having shown he can perform well in warm French weather, should be backed for a 14th win of the season in stage four, even at 1.78.

The forecast's not even that good for the ride from Lorient to Mur de Bretagne, but the third-category climb to the finish is harder than Saturday's and might interest Alberto Contador, who needs to take time out of Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans. Gilbert has beaten Contador in one-day classic races with similar profiles - the Fleche Wallonne this year, for example - and remains the selection.

Best Bet: Back Philippe Gilbert @ 1.78 to be Stage Four Winner

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Tour de France 2011 – Stage 4 betting tips

The Tour de France 2011 continues today and Phillipe Gilbert is strong favourite to claim victory on this latest leg of the Tour

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